Thursday, December 23, 2010
Both of these charts show seasonally adjusted first time claims for unemployment. The top chart takes the long view using a 4-week moving average, while the bottom chart zooms in on the weekly numbers for the last 5 years. Claims are now down 37% from their early 2009 high, and it would only take a 20% decline from here to get claims down to the levels that prevailed in 2006-2007. Dare it be said that we are beginning to see signs of actual strength in these numbers? Perhaps, but for now the main thing driving adjusted claims lower is that actual claims are not declining as they usually do at this time of the year. But no matter how you spin the numbers, I think it's safe to say there has been some genuine improvement in the economy in recent months, and that is one more reason to think that Q4 GDP growth could come in much stronger than Q3.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:13 AM