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October exports are old news, but it's nice to see that they rose 3.2% for the month, much more than expected. Exports had slowed down over the summer, and that was potentially worrisome; now we know that it was just temporary. Over the past three months exports are up at a 15.6% annualized rate, and they are up 15% over the past twelve months. Double-digit export growth has resulted in an almost-complete recovery from pre-recession levels. At these growth rates, exports will likely make new highs by the end of this year, and will contribute significantly to Q4 GDP growth.
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There is a significant trend towards Lean Mfg with F, CAT and GE making progress. CAT has freed significant cash flow by having far less rework and bought 3 companies 2010. US companies are finding triple output with 1/2 workers, but then are more competitive globally and have more new hires as a result pulling work back to the US. Is their evidence that this is responsible for improving trade balance?
The easy things to point to for an improving trade picture (whether we have a deficit or not is irrelevant) would be 1) the dollar has been very weak for some years now, and that might account for better export performance, 2) US manufacturers have gotten leaner and meaner, and 3) foreign economies, particularly the emerging market countries plus Chindia, are doing great.
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