Thursday, April 1, 2010

Brazil's super-V-shaped recovery



The top chart shows the level of Brazil's industrial production, which, in just over one year, managed to retrace almost all of its 2008 losses. Not surprisingly, Brazil's stock market is now within inches of its former all-time high. This has got to rank as one of the most amazing recoveries to date, a super-V. It's also a reminder that while we struggle with bad policies and high unemployment, many economies around the world are recovering rapidly. This fits with the very strong NAPM export orders number reported earlier today. The global economy is on a tear, and this can only help lift the prospects for the US economy.

3 comments:

brodero said...

Now if you said the U.S. was the next Brazil.....even though I still
love Rio.....

Paul said...

But would Obama say his "stimulus" plan caused this, and the resurgence of other economies around the world?

Yeah.

Benjamin said...

The fact that so many regional and national economies simultaneously tumbled does raise interesting questions--surely this was not caused by a sudden contraction in the global money supply? All monetary authorities were contracting?

Housing markets globally were pummeled--so were Fannie and Freddie so guilty? The home mortgage interest tax deduction?

I do recall one insight of George Bush (in his last few months as President, presiding over an near complete collapse of our financial system): "How have we reached the point where the failure of a single insurance company can wreak national economic havoc?"

Bush was referring to AIG, of course.

You know, Bush had some sense after all. Still a good question, Still the situation we are in?