Did you post a chart in the last couple of weeks that showed the number of months it takes after a recession ends before umemployment drops? I can't recall where I saw it but I remember it being around 14-16 months afterwards. Any thoughts?
I've mentioned several times that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator and that it doesn't usually peak until well after a recession ends. 14-16 months sounds reasonable. I've also said I don't think we'll have any meaningful decline in the unemployment rate until Q3/10 at the earliest.
Post a Comment