Thursday, July 30, 2009

Weekly claims continue to be encouraging (2)

The claims data released today are free of the seasonal adjustment problem caused by the earlier-than-expected automaker layoffs. As expected, claims rose. But the trajectory for claims is still downwards. As this chart shows, the 4-week moving average of claims is up only slightly from what it was six months ago, and that was well before the peak in claims that came at the end of March. The labor market is still distressed, but a lot less than before. We're making slow progress, but it's still progress.

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