Milei and Trump share victories

I've written several times about my admiration for Argentina's Javier Milei (see MAGA down south). Many called him crazy, but he, like Trump, overcame seemingly insurmountable odds to beat the candidate of the ruling party. Argentina was teetering on the precipice of an economic collapse, and now, after just one year of Milei's ministrations, inflation has been radically downsized, from 25.5% per month when he assumed office a year ago to only 2.7% last month, and the economy is once again growing, with some projecting real GDP growth of almost 10% in the coming year. Confirming the dramatic improvement in the outlook, the free market peso (the "Blue" dollar) has been almost unchanged over the past year (see Chart #1), and the Argentine stock market (using ARGT as a proxy) has surged by almost 75% in the past year in dollar terms.

Chart #1

U.S. consumers are still reeling from the jolt of inflation unleashed by $6 trillion of Covid "stimulus" spending, but as I've been pointing out for almost two years, there is clear evidence that inflation has since returned to 2% or so. Many problems remain, however, and a clear majority of the public felt that Trump was more likely to deal successfully with those problems than Harris. 

My Argentine friend, Nuni Cademartori, is both a talented artist and a fan of Trump and Argentine President Milei, whom many consider to be Argentina's Trump. Milei is also a fan of Trump's, and was reportedly the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump on his victory in person. I publish Nuni's congratulatory cartoon below, and I join Nuni in breathing a sigh of relief that our futures look brighter. Three cheers for Milei and Trump!

P.S. (Nov. 21). The obvious convergence of the peso’s market and official rate (now only 10% apart) is good evidence that Milei’s program is working. It means that the official rate is essentially the same as the market rate, which in turn means that the government could effectively dollarize the economy at today’s rate (approximately 1000-1100 pesos per dollar) and at the same time liberalize the exchange market so that capital could flow in and out freely. The rate might vary somewhat, but it is not far off from where it should be right now. The dynamic that most observers miss is that as confidence in Milei and Argentina grows, more capital wants to come into the economy than wants to leave. That means the demand for pesos is strong relative to the supply of pesos (which is growing at a slower and slower rate) is greater than the supply of pesos, and that is why inflation is falling. 

It’s no wonder that the Argentine stock market is on fire. It’s beaten the S&P 500 for the past 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years, and by a wide margin.