This morning the market was apparently surprised by a stronger-than-expected jobs number. Private payrolls rose by 223K in September, vs. an expected gain of 125K. Some called it a "monster" number. From my perspective, however, nothing changed at all. Private sector jobs are growing by about 1.3 to 1.4% per year, as they have been for the past several months. This is moderate growth, probably enough to deliver overall economic growth of 2% per year or so. A nothing-burger.
Chart #1
There is nothing in today's report that should influence the Fed to change course. Inflation is yesterday's problem, and jobs growth is moderate. Lower interest rates are appropriate.
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