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Just look at the charts and facts on this page (screen shot below) and you will see that that lockdowns and mask mandates don't change the course of the Covid pandemic and in fact just make things worse.
Reminder of what I said last April: "The shutdown of the US economy will prove to be the most expensive self-inflicted injury in the history of mankind.™" What a disaster it has been, and all for nothing. Indeed, we have more problems now, thanks to the lockdowns, than we would have had without them.
The good news, however, is very encouraging, as the last chart on this page shows. The US population is rapidly nearing the point at which it achieves herd immunity. It's no wonder, then, that the number of daily new cases (7-day moving average) in the US is down 75% since the peak of January 11, '21. In California, daily new cases are now down 90% from their peak.
12 comments:
The worst economic mistake call last Spring seemed crazy at the time, but one year later it makes sense.
I find the term herd immunity is not well understood.
It simply means the number of infected people has stopped RISING.
Herd immunity could be infections remaining about the same, falling slightly or falling rapidly.
There's a huge difference between remaining the same, and falling rapidly, but both would be "herd immunity".
The history of flu is one of mutations, and vaccines being a lot less effective than hoped. That has already happened with two different COVID vaccines,
In Brazil, the Sinovac (Chinese) vaccine was only 10% effective on a new strain of COVID there.
In South Africa, the AstraVeneca vaccine was only 50% effective on a new strain of vaccine there.
It would be amazing if the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were anywhere close to 95% effective with new COVID strains entering the US. One can only hope.
And of course we have no idea how long COVID immunity from any vaccine will last, or what the long term side effects of the vaccines are. This is a huge experiment.
As we found out from Sweden, even without government mandates people will still voluntarily social distance by choice. Especially older people. That affects some businesses.
There is no logical reason to believe COVID will soon disappear.
It will probably be among the many viruses that can make people sick -- there were 219 that we lived with before COVID-19 ... so now there are 220 we have to live with?
Hi Scott, long time reader here. I’m having trouble finding the data referenced in the PDF, on the websites listed in the source section (regarding the graph on the top left hand corner of the PDF). May you help point me in the right direction? Also, regarding the masks vs. no masks debate, what are your thoughts on the following article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/science-and-health/21546014/mask-mandates-coronavirus-covid-19
Thank you sir for all that you do.
This WSJ article presents a devastating picture of harsher lockdown policies and their impact. I suppose a fair argument is that no one knew with certainty and some states chose more caution. There are less generous views of the political motives for sure.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vindication-for-ron-desantis-11614986751?st=ri8vm4cd97q4b9s&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
A few quotes:
Teachers unions in large school districts in California, meanwhile, have refused to return to classrooms. They claim schools are unsafe. But per capita Covid cases among children are about the same in Florida and California.
[.....]
The fall and winter lockdowns don’t appear to have made any difference in the virus spread. Between Nov. 1 and Feb. 28, there were 5.8 new cases per 100 people in New York, 6.4 in California, and only 5 in Florida, where businesses could stay open at full capacity. But the economic impact of the lockdowns has been enormous.
Employment declined by 4.6% in Florida in 2020, compared with 8% in California and 10.4% in New York. Leisure and hospitality jobs fell 15% in Florida, vs. 30% in California and 39% in New York.
Great quote from Glenn Reynolds:
"Masks have been transformed from tools that are moderately useful in the right circumstances to magical totems. The sort of thing that a . . . neanderthal might employ against disease."
AL: re data. I suggest you ask the folks—friends Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein—that produced the charts. Here's their website, where you might find more info as well:
https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx
Thank you sir. I hope you and yours are well.
Scott, what are your thoughts pertaining to the vox.com article? Here’s the link, just in case: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/21546014/mask-mandates-coronavirus-covid-19
Thanks again Scott for everything.
The lockdown is ending in practical terms, regardless of what "officials" or medical quacks or mass media have to say on the subject.
Its not just Florida or just Texas where governors have put an official end to the stupidity. Its also hundreds of municipalities where sheriffs have publicly announced they will not enforce the silly edicts.
In New York City, the Hasidic Jewish community has been ignoring NY Gov Cuomo's nonsense for many months -- holding massive weddings and funerals in open defiance of both Cuomo and NYC mayor deBlasio. At first, Cuomo tried yelling at them, then he tried bargaining -- the Hasidic community didn't even bother to reply. They just went about their (religious) business as normal. Guess what? The Hasidic are not suffering mass casualties nor infections; their death rate and infection rate are quite similar to Florida. They are doing just fine.
A few months ago, JPM's CEO Jamie Dimon made all sorts of threats to employees about getting vaccinated and "mandatory return to the office" -- meaning high priced mass transit, crime, taxes, and closed restaurants). Last week, JPM announced they are putting whole office buildings up for sub-lease because... drum roll please... workers told Dimon where he could stuff it after he sends them severance pay. JPM would have had a brain drain to put it out of business -- so the board told Dimon to grow up or get out. Looking at his $25 million paycheck doing next to nothing, Dimon realized it was in his interest to fold.
I doubt corrupt bureaucrats will willingly give up the extra powers they assumed (illegally) a year ago. But even in very left leaning places the population has had it.
Cuomo may be forced to resign in the next month or two. The media says its because of multiple sex assault accusations against him (and those may be a factor). Both the illegal lock down and the sex assaults are both examples of Cuomo's insipid arrogance. In California, grusome Newsome is about to face a recall election.
The lock down is ending. In forward thinking places, Governors are calling it dead. In backwards places, the population is just ignoring it. There aren't enough police to do anything about it, even if they weren't being defunded.
The lock down was a huge mistake from the beginning, as many people had warned for decades before the political class tried it.
I tend to agree with Scott Grannis on this one, but even if I didn't, now is the time to put COVID-19 behind us. Open everything up.
America needs the tonic of Full Tilt Boogie Boom Times in Fat City.
Now is not the time to worry about inflation, or global warming, or even the national deficit. Now is the time to create the tightest job markets ever seen in America.
When due to "labor shortages" people with lisps and a stutter are being hired as radio announcers, then we are there. Keep it that tight for several more years.
And enact all the pro-business legislation possible. Get rid of all property zoning.
Here is a rant:
As the the US and the world scramble to get out of the COVID-19 recession, and are on the cusp...OPEC doubles oil prices, through production cut-offs.
Such nice guys!
And where are the US globalists, so eager to bash Trump for modest tariffs on one other trading party, while rhapsodizing about free trade?
No florid condemnations of OPEC for rigging markets, smiting "free trade" and extoring trillions of dollars?
You can hear a pin drop.
Yesterday, in defiance of Google and Facebook censors, the CDC published their opinion that people who volunteered to be lab rats and take unproven RNA modification drugs that may or may not provide some protection for one year ... are now allowed to visit with friends who are similarly gullible. Freedom of assembly might be a freedom granted by our creator (so claims the Constitution anyway) -- but the CDC isn't very good at reading.
Of course, most people are already meeting up with friends on the down low -- and have been for months.
As for the GMO people (having taken an mRNA modifier are by definition "genetically modified organisms")... they can now enjoy the freedoms everyone else has already!!!
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