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Chart #1
Chart #2
As Charts #1 and #2 show, there hasn't been any change in the underlying rate of growth of private sector jobs for most of the past year. Indeed, the pace of hiring this year has been slower than it was in prior years.
Chart #3
However, there has been a significant improvement among small business owners, as Chart #3 shows. An index of future hiring plans in November posted its strongest reading in the 44-year history of the survey. This suggests that Trump's efforts to reduce regulatory burdens, coupled with a strong expectation of reduced future tax burdens, have already produced positive results.
As I mentioned earlier this week, though, the market has still not priced in a stronger economy. Optimism is building, but the market is still in a "show-me" frame of mind.
UPDATE: Today (Dec. 12, '17) the overall Small Business Optimism Index was released, and it was also impressive, surging to a level that is just shy of that which occurred at the dawn of the boom years which followed the Reagan tax cuts:
3 comments:
Scott, if you are right about this-and you very well may be, you should get some sort of "retired guy" economic award. The next year will be VERY interesting.
ps I will not bet against you...
You gotta love that Chart #3. Let us hope it is serious signal!
There would be nothing better for America than a long decade of boom times and tight job markets.
And much more housing construction along the West Coast!
Scott Grannis, I just want to express my appreciation for the work you do in providing this thoughtful post site, even in retirement. You also generate constructive comments from readers who are serious about their understanding of economics.
I believe I benefit from reading all of them.
And to you and all of them I wish a Merry Christmas & Holidays and a prosperous New Year!
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