Sunday, November 22, 2015

Congratulations, Argentina!

The citizens of Argentina today turned a new page in Argentine history by voting out the Peronists after 12 troublesome years of rule. I've written several times over the years about the ravages of Peronism and the disturbing echoes of the same here in the U.S. It's a relief to know that things should be changing for the better. Congratulations to all my friends and family in Argentina!

The new president, Mauricio Macri, promises to be much more business friendly than the outgoing Cristina Kirchner. Although he is quite likely to officially devalue the peso, it will only be to the extent that it has already been devalued in the black market. If he successfully pursues the right policies—liberalizing the exchange rate market, lowering the punitive taxes and tariffs on exports, and squeezing out wasteful and corrupt government spending, to name just a few—it would not be surprising to see the peso strengthen a bit from the 15 pesos/dollar level that has prevailed in the black market. Once capital knows that it is free to leave, once creditors know that their loans will be repaid, once exporters know they can keep the fruit of their efforts, then the capital outflows of recent years should reverse. Already the stock market has been celebrating in anticipation, turning in one of the strongest performances in the Western Hemisphere.

Like the U.S., the Argentine economy has been underperforming for years. It only takes a few things to go right in order to unleash stronger growth.

PS: Macri takes over beginning December 10th.


juanma said...

hi Scott, thanks for that mention to Argentina !! i read all your post, i think they are great ! i wish we (argentina) were a bit more like you guys in the US !!

i live down here, and i know you know, but it s hell in terms of business and politics, very difficult to get anything done !

Benjamin Cole said...

I wish boom times and prosperity to the Argentines...and to Americans too!

Benjamin Cole said...

Dow Jones Commodity Index TR annualized rate of return:
One year: -31.27
Three Year: -16.72
Five Year: -9.21
10-Year -2.60.

Egads, commodities are down over the last 10 years?

I can remember when people made long faces and talked about commodities and inflation, etc. Okay, so now commodities are cheaper than 10 years ago.

The Fed is going to tighten?

Actually, the Fed has been been tightening. Real interest rates are rising a little bit. The Fed quit QE. Left IOER in place. It is doing something with the so-called reverse repo market, but the nomenclature is so opaque that I always forget what after a couple of hours.

Goldman Sachs says gold to fall under $1,000 soon. Maybe so. Silver falling fast.

Christopher Durr said...

What a wonderful Christmas gift! I hope there are many happy times ahead for your family and all Argentines.

NormanB said...

Argentinians like all the other Spanish speaking countries below the USA fundamentally believe in Santa Claus, that the government can 'give' you things. After this guy is done, ie not economic improvement to the people, they'll vote in another Santa Claus. Only education and industrious citizens can improve living standards.

Lawyer in NJ said...

Borrow money at historically low rates to rebuild our infrastructure, and watch the economy grow.

William said...
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William said...
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William said...
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William said...

"Word has finally gotten around
Interest rates can no longer stay down
It won't be easy
We're all feeling queasy
Worried the economy will start losing ground"

"But the lousy economic situation
May be caused by over regulation
It is really cruel
Having too many rules
Making an impossible situation"

William said...
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Hans said...

I occur with Ben Jamin, celebratory words!

Let Gentina rise from the muck and waste of their Socshevik system. This will
indeed require a very, very long reign by the Conservatives and Market forces.

If not, NormanB, will stand correct in his prophecies. What a shame it has
been to see a nation as fertile and productive to fall into the cesspool
of mandates and inefficiency.

I am now crying for Argentina and it's people. They are tears of hope and
change! Now let toil and sweet commence it's work.

marcusbalbus said...

yeah. the stock market is awesome. just ignore that 15+ inflation. please, don't mislead.

Hans said...

M & M will have his work cut out for him, as both
Houses are still controlled by the opposition party.

Scott Grannis said...

Hans: Traditionally, the Argentine Congress has been spineless. Macri might not have such a hard time if he has good policies and the support of the population.

Hans said...
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Hans said...

Mr Grannis, that is good news indeed.

The nation has a great deal of potential, if unfettered
by it's all too long Socialist history.

Perhaps, it could become a Chilean moment!

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