Monday, April 1, 2013

Manufacturing index points to 2-3% GDP growth


The March ISM survey of the manufacturing sector came in weaker than expected (51.3 vs. 54), but as the chart above suggests, the level of the index is nevertheless consistent with economic growth in the first quarter of 2-3%. That would be a welcome acceleration from the previous quarter's anemic 0.4% growth.


The export orders subcomponent jumped substantially in March, suggesting that conditions overseas have improved noticeably this year after a weak second half.


The employment subcomponent remains modestly positive. Overall, nothing much to cheer about, just more of the same: modest growth, with little or no sign of any emerging weakness. 

3 comments:

Joseph Constable said...

GDP growth in the 4th quarter was $13 billion. For the whole of 2012 it was $225 billion.

So you can see the impact of QE 4 at the rate of $255 billion in just one quarter is great.

This looks like the economy was rescued.

William McKibbin said...

Unfortunately, the future of the US is not manufacturing...

Gloeschi said...

You are too funny, Scott. Of all the sub-indices, you pick the two ones which increased compared to February while omitting the six showing a decrease. Do you think you are doing your readers a favor by forcing rose-colored glasses on them? They get that all day at CNBC anyway. No need to cheerlead here, too.