Wednesday, March 2, 2011

ADP points to stronger job growth


ADP is guessing that the change in February private sector jobs to be reported this Friday is going to be 217K. They have over-estimated the actual number for the past two months—are they going to make the same mistake again? I'm an optimist, given all the good numbers we're seeing, so I think they might even be underestimating the number this time. The market is expecting 200K new private sector jobs this Friday, and I think we could see more than that.

6 comments:

Bill said...

Scott,

Do you think the trouble in the Middle East is going to cause another recession? It seems like higher oil prices are not as easily absorbed as some would seem to think. Why can't our politicians understand that we've got to be able to tap our own resources rather than be subject to a region that will never stabilize?

Benjamin said...

Yeah, when they say they want drilling off the coast of West Palm Beach FL, Newport Beach CA, the Sea Islands of Georgia and Cape Cod, let me know.

Paul said...

Benji,

Yeah, because those places are the only places we can drill...

How about for now if we start with Obama lifting his drilling permitorium off the gulf coast?

Scott Grannis said...

Bill: I think it takes more than $4/gal gas to push this economy into a recession. If gas goes over $5/gal. I might reconsider.

John said...

Paul,

I believe Noble Energy was issued a deep water well permit yesterday. It appears more are coming.

Benjamin said...

Paul-

Good news, I read in the WSJ yesterday that drilling has resumed in the Gulf

...but not off the coast of Florida, where a Governor Bush fought for and won a permanent ban on drilling...or off the coast of Virgina, and Georgia...or off the coast of Newport Beach...and in Cape Cod they won't even let windmills go up.

My point was not partisan, but this: Rich people will not tolerate oil drilling near their $2 million seaside vacation homes. Or even windmills, in the case of Cape Cod. This transcends partisanship.

Shale gas is coming on big too. Story in the WSJ today about gluts for years. Good news.

Cars and trucks can run on CNG, and do in many parts of the world.

I would like to see a $2 gasoline tax phased in at 25 cents for the next eight seasons, and eliminate corporate income taxes at the same time.

Unfortunately, rural states see a red flag when you say "gasoline taxes" as they have long drives to make, usually on roads that are subsidized. With two Senators from every dinky rural state, national policy is usually warped.