Tuesday, November 9, 2010
The UCLA/Ceridien Pulse of Commerce Index has registered a 3-mo. slump through October. While this confirms other signs of a pause in the economy's recovery process (they called it a "recovery time out"), it doesn't correlate with other signs of continued growth (e.g., rising industrial metals prices, strong corporate profits, growth in air travel, growth in money supply). Regardless, this is one of the few signs I've seen that would suggest another quarter of weak GDP growth. My sense is that the index is wrong this time, but it is a cautionary note that bears watching.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:09 AM