Thursday, October 28, 2010

Claims continue to slowly improve


If we ignore the outlier drop in claims last July—which occurred because factory layoffs weren't as large as the seasonal adjustment factors expected—then the most recent claims number marks a new low for the year. The reason? For the past few weeks, actual claims have not risen as is typical for this time of the year. A few more weeks of this and we would see a notable decline in the seasonally adjusted number, and that would be bullish for the economy's prospects.


Meanwhile, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits continues to decline—down by 4 million since the peak early this year. That is big news. Undoubtedly, some of those who have fallen off the dole have found work, while others are increasingly desperate. The combination of those two factors adds up to more people working and more people who are more motivated to find a job. Borrowing from commenter "brodero," I note that Gallup's Job Creation Index has moved to a new, post-recession high. Taken together, it must be the case that the economy continues to improve, albeit slowly.

7 comments:

Donny Baseball said...

Hey Scott. Would love to hear your thoughts on the political situation in Argentina in the wake of Kirchner's death. I think your readers would be interested to hear your perspective, I know I would. Cheers.

Beatotrader said...

Off Topic

I see the "super-Chicago PMI"
Only two question:
- the new orders sub-index includes also orders from outside U.S.? (export)
- In wich way you can explain the manifacturing Chicago-mini-Boom that is well above the average of the U.S.?

Thanks

Scott Grannis said...

I assume the new orders sub-index includes export orders. I don't have a good explanation for why Chicago area is doing better than the average.

Scott Grannis said...

Re: Argentina. I have refrained from making a separate post on this out of decorum I suppose. But my bottom line is this: instead of mourning the death of Kirchner, Argentina should be celebrating. He was the embodiment of all that is bad and corrupt in the peronist movement, and he was a figurehead. He was planning on returning to power after his wife's term. Now the road is open to younger and better blood.

Beatotrader said...

Thanks Scott
I'm thinking over this list....

Lista di società con sede nell'area metropolitana di Chicago [modifica]
Società con sede all'interno dei confini cittadini di Chicago [modifica]

* Accenture
* Aon Corporation (n. 199 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Boeing (n. 21 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Chicago Board of Trade
* Chicago Mercantile Exchange
* Chicago Stock Exchange
* Click Commerce
* CNA
* Encyclopædia Britannica
* Equity Office Properties (n. 493 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Equity Residential Properties Trust
* Exelon Corporation (n. 126 nella lista Fortune 500)
* General Growth Properties
* Hostway
* Morton Salt
* National Stock Exchange
* Northern Trust
* Old Republic International Corporation (n. 491 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Orbitz
* Peoples Energy
* Playboy
* Quaker Oats
* R.R. Donnelley & Sons (n. 362 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Sara Lee (n.104 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Smurfit-Stone Container Corporation (n. 255 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Telephone and Data Systems Incorporated (n. 480 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Tootsie Roll Industries
* Tribune Company (n. 323 nella lista Fortune 500)
* US Cellular
* USG Corporation (n. 458 nella lista Fortune 500)
* Unitrin
* Whittman-Hart
* WM. Wrigley Jr. Company

Società con sede in altri centri dell'area metropolitana [modifica]

* Abbott Laboratories (Abbott Park, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Allstate (Northbrook, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Azteca Foods (Summit-Argo, IL)
* Baxter International (Deerfield, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Brunswick Corporation (Lake Forest, IL) (Fortune 500)
* CDW (Vernon Hills, IL) (Fortune 500)
* CNH Global (Burr Ridge, IL; precedentemente Lake Forest, IL)
* Crate and Barrel (Northbrook, IL)
* Fortune Brands (Lincolnshire, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Illinois Tool Works (Glenview, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Kraft Foods (Northfield, IL)
* Laidlaw (Naperville, IL) (Fortune 500)
* McDonald's Corporation (Oak Brook, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Molex (Lisle, IL)
* Motorola (Schaumburg, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Namco Cybertainment (Bensenville, IL)
* Navistar International Corporation (Warrenville, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Nicor (Naperville, IL)
* Pearson Scott Foresman (Glenview, IL)
* Sears Holdings (Hoffman Estates, IL) (Fortune 500)
* ServiceMaster (Downers Grove, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Tellabs (Naperville, IL)
* Tenneco (Lake Forest, IL) (Fortune 500)
* United Airlines (Elk Grove Village, IL) (Fortune 500)
* United Stationers (Des Plaines, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Walgreens (Deerfield, IL) (Fortune 500)
* W.W. Grainger (Lake Forest, IL) (Fortune 500)
* Zebra Technologies (Vernon Hills, IL)
* Zenith Electronics Corporation (Lincolnshire, IL)

Scott Grannis said...

No question there are a lot of important companies in the area. If Chicago is doing well that certainly helps the outlook for the rest of the economy.

Donny Baseball said...

Scott, you are a tasteful man, although the bond market has no such decorum...it is cheering Kirchner's death exuberantly.