Monday, January 4, 2010

V-shaped recovery in manufacturing



The ISM manufacturing survey released today again reinforces the fact that significant portions of the U.S. economy are experiencing a V-shaped recovery. As this chart suggests, we are likely to see real GDP growth of 4% or possibly even more in this first quarter of the new year. I'll stick with my projection of 3-4% real growth on balance for the year. This is undeniably excellent news for the economy.

3 comments:

Beatotrader said...

Scott, please stop the optimism shape "american dream" for a moment...If you can...
I never see (from the WWII anfd from the Marshall Plan) an (hypotetical) V shape recovery so "socialist" & keynesian...
You can see the boom of the US deficit? You can se the boom of the US public debt?
You can se the incredible "zero-strategy" of the FED: never seen before in the History of the US...never...
Stop your wonderful optmism and think outside the norms for a moment...
You are very expert but too much in the classical patterns...:-)
in my opinion off course...

Scott Grannis said...

I continue to believe, as I have for over a year now, that this recovery has nothing to do with Keynesian "stimulus." Indeed, I think the stimulus plan has actually hindered the economy's progress by expanding the influence of government, promoting wasteful spending, and raising the prospects of a significant increase in future tax burdens.

The only good thing about the Fed's monetary strategy has been that it prevented a monetary deflation and a collapse of the banking system. Both of those are legitimate reasons for pursuing a zero interest rate strategy. But I would never argue that easy money can produce economic growth out of thin air.

On balance, I think monetary and fiscal policy have actually acted to slow the economy's recovery, and will continue to do so unless and until things change materially. This will be a sub-par recovery because of misguided policy "stimulus."

This recovery is largely the result of the economy's innate ability to adjust to adversity and the market's ability to translate hard work into profits and progress.

Beatotrader said...

It isn't a very impartial comment...but...
Pimco CEO: We're Trained to Think the "Farther You Fall, The Higher You'll Bounce Back. We're Hostage to the V"-Shaped Recovery Model
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimco-ceo-were-trained-think-farther-you-fall-higher-youll-bounce-back-were-hostage-v-shaped?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

In any case you think that Keynes is not the "engine" of the recovery...
But Obama is a socialist in the US parameters...:-)
And the US Deficit/Debt is exploding for wich reasons?
Only for a spending-mania without aims?
See for ex. the real estate...and You will see that without simulus and zero-strategy you would go in a big big depression that for now is anaesthetized on the public debt's shoulders....

The economy's innate ability to adjust to adversity is very important...above all in the US.
But if you say..."this recovery has nothing to do with Keynesian "stimulus."...I think you would like the surreal Fellini Films...:-)
"Nothing" is too much: is more realistic 1/3 (in my opinion 2/3)...
In any case is a pleasure speak with you :-)