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Obama's approval ratings continue to slide. Importantly, the percentage of those who "strongly approve" of his performance in office has hit a new low of 25%, after being as high as 45% right after he assumed office in January. The change on the margin in the past several months has been the ongoing decline in the number of people who feel strongly that he is doing a good job.
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The disenchanted are discovering that Hope really meant Hype.
The declining trend continues to be good. In a few months, the only thing he'll be able to get passed will be a kidney stone.
Worried about this week's global warming conference though; lots of financial damage will come of it despite the recent discovery of hacked "science."
Niiiiiice! :)
CNN/Opinion Research had 48% approval 50% disappoval but 8% of the disapproval was because he was
not liberal enough with 40% disapproving becuase he was too liberal....go figure....
CNN = Collecting Nefarious Numbers
I wonder what percentage of those who strongly disapprove are far left wing 'progressives' who feel that Obama is not liberal and activist enough? Alas, I suspect that a significant percentage of the strongly disapproving are not sympathetic to conservative policies. I would be interesting to see this group broken out in the opinion polls, not sure if polling organizations dig that deep.
This jibes with the polls indicating Republicans lead on all the key voter issues. Shows how loathesome The Messiah's policies are when you consider the GOP appears is all but hibernating.
But what happens when the economy recovers and Obama takes credit for every bit of it?
What's happening so far is that economy IS recovering but Obama is still under the gun, mainly because this is not a very robust recovery. Even my optimistic forecast of 3-4% real growth will not result in a significant decline in the unemployment rate by the time elections roll around next year. Bush lost to Clinton in '92 even though the economy had been in recovery for over a year, because people thought it was a weak recovery.
Scott is right about the weak recovery but this one is different, the receovery will be very weak and will not feel like a recovery at all. I speak to CFOs and CEOs all day long and they are scared silly at the laundry list of things the Dems in Congress want to do to them and the Obama admin. is on board for whatever the Dem Congress wants and then some. I kid you not, many are fearful that they won't be able to stay in business if even 90% of what the Dems want to do gets passed. They are not hiring and will not be hiring unless it is obsolutely necessary to win or complete business. They see hiring as helping their executioners right now as any good job market news will accrue to Obama and the Dems. Trust me, the jobs data has a long way to go in awful territory
Donny: If things are really as awful as you say, how do you account for the fact that the jobs situation has improved so much to date?
Scott-
I assume you mean the slowdown in job losses to almost nothing. Yes, it is a good sign, but there is a base level of business that companies have pared down to support and they are grabbing fairly robust export business, so there is work, but the situation is seen as fragile, especially exports to Europe. CEOs are going to try to grab business using what labor they have in-house. There will be some temporary workers hired to grab any extra business volumes, but the appetite to re-hire in numbers is not there - they want to cement their current business models (lean and mean) for the long term.
A down tick in base business or a blip in export work will interupt the steadying we've seen in job losses, IMO. From my conversations deleveraging and buybacks are the highest priorities for cash, not capex; and more capex is going abroad. Plus, CEOs tell me flat out they are scared witless when they talk to their Reps and/or key Committee Members. CEOs have told me that the level of hostility and thuggery coming out of DC is the worst they've seen - it is not all Obama, guys like Charlie Rangel have gotten much bolder - and they are not about to reward that type of treatment. they want to hide, hang on until the next few elections.
Donny: I appreciate your contributions to this debate. I think what you relate makes sense. I have no doubt that businesses are very reluctant to hire and expand given the political climate and the anti-capital stance of the Obama administration.
The question I ask myself, however, is whether the reluctance to invest, and the implications this has for a meager recovery in the years to come, is priced into the market or not. I think the market figured out how bad Obama was for business a long time ago (i.e., early March '09). One of the drivers of the market's improvement since then has been the realization that Obama is not going to get everything he wants.
My reading of the market tea leaves suggests that the market is priced to very slow growth, and I think that is consistent with the fears you express.
So the key question then is whether the economy is going to do better than stage a meager recovery. If anything, I think the global economy is going to be strong enough to support a better than expected recovery via the channel of stronger demand for US exports.
Scott-
I agree about the market. The flipside of my view of the jobs outlook is operating leverage at companies. Overhead levels are way down from 2008 and even a little pickup in business will juice the bottom line nicely, so I am betting on decent earnings. A robust rebound around the globe can keep many US companies doing well for awhile. So, I am bullish but not ragingly so. However the stock market has a chance to do very well if three things happen: 1)global growth takes hold and persists into 2011, 2)Democrats take a beating in Nov 2010 and we get gridlock for Obama's remaining term, 3)the dollar firms and steadies oil prices in the $70-$80 range. If all three happen, I am looking for a very good return in stocks beyond 2010.
Scott-
Yesterday's Business Roundtable report on CEO's outlook for the economy bears out my stance. Summary: "more upbeat, but still not hiring".
Cheers.
Donny: be patient, hiring doesn't pick up until well after a recession ends.
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