Job growth is picking up

The November ADP estimate of private sector job growth rose more than expected (93K vs. 70K), and is now at its highest post-recession level. The picture here is one of gradual improvement, and it jibes with the slowing in the pace of layoffs and the upward trend in private sector jobs that we have seen in both the establishment and household job surveys so far this year. No sign of a boom, but also no sign of a double-dip.

Corporate layoff activity remains subdued

Announced corporate layoffs ticked up in November, but remain very low from an historical perspective.

Mortgage applications rising

As this chart of new applications for mortgages (seasonally adjusted) shows, demand for mortgages keeps rising. They are now up 27% from their July low. As the Mortgage Bankers' Assoc. puts it, this index is "a reliable indicator of impending home sales." In retrospect, there was an obvious slump in the housing market in the May-July period, but it now appears to be reversing, albeit slowly.