Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Tax shares update
I've updated this chart to include data recently made available for 2009. The big-picture takeaway hasn't changed: the rich pay a hugely disproportionate share of federal income taxes. The top 1% of income earners paid almost 40% of all federal income taxes; the top 5% paid almost 60%; and the top 10% paid about 70%. The bottom 50% of income earners paid only 2.3% of all federal income taxes, and some 59 million tax filers either paid no income tax or received money on net from the IRS. This puts us perilously close to a "tyranny of the majority" in which there are more people receiving net benefits from the government than there are paying into the system.
One other important thing to note is that the share of total income taxes paid by the top 10% of income earners today has risen by 40% since the early 1980s, despite the fact that the top income tax rate has been cut in half. This is powerful evidence that the Laffer Curve is alive and well: cutting tax rates that are too high can and does yield a lot more in the way of revenue than a static analysis would suggest, because lower tax rates create bigger incentives to work and risk-taking, and they reduce the incentives to shelter, evade, or defer income, thus broadening the tax base. I also note that federal income taxes as a share of GDP were approximately the same in 2009 as they were in the early 1980s, thus proving that lower tax rates do not necessarily translate into reduced tax revenues.
Note: this chart does not include social security taxes, which are much more regressive, thanks to a cap on taxable income. But, given that social security taxes are supposed to be equivalent to a defined contribution plan (i.e., the benefits you receive are proportionate to the what you pay in), this is only fair. What you pay into social security is presumably your money, whereas what you pay in income taxes goes to fund the government.
Apple continues to impress
Two tidbits of news today have likely helped reverse the recent decline in AAPL:
The Android platform is growing increasingly fragmented and subject to virus and spyware attack. Apple's "closed" platform for iPhones and iPads is proving to be superior, despite being widely criticized. Amazon's Fire tablet, launched today, uses an extensively revised and customized version of Android. Those who want to develop new apps for Android devices now must contend with dozens of products, each of which work just a bit differently, and now, with the Fire, have a variety of screen sizes. Already it can be said that the Android platform does not provide customers with a consistent user experience, and at the rate Android malware is proliferating and new Android-based products are launching, this could become a nightmare for both users and developers pretty quickly. Meanwhile, the best that can be said of the best Android-based phones and tablets is that they are almost as good as Apple products. Competition is good, but I don't see how any product out there can overtake Apple's commanding lead, ease of use, quality control, and seamless integration among a variety of devices.
Apple's iTunes Match was launched yesterday and is receiving rave reviews. I'm not a consumer of music, but my son-in-law is, and he reports that last night it took him only an hour and a half to install the latest version of iTunes on his computer, pay $25 to activate iTunes Match, and then let iTunes scan his 6,000 song music library. He now has his entire music collection—including many thousands of tracks that he had scanned from CDs over the years—in Apple's iCloud, available to listen to on his iPad, iPhone, and iMac. Very impressive, and he didn't have to upload any music to do this. iTunes Match even allows you to receive free a higher-quality version of a song you may have scanned long ago at a low bit-rate. It will be tough for others to beat this offering.
Full disclosure: I am long AAPL at the time of this writing.
The Android platform is growing increasingly fragmented and subject to virus and spyware attack. Apple's "closed" platform for iPhones and iPads is proving to be superior, despite being widely criticized. Amazon's Fire tablet, launched today, uses an extensively revised and customized version of Android. Those who want to develop new apps for Android devices now must contend with dozens of products, each of which work just a bit differently, and now, with the Fire, have a variety of screen sizes. Already it can be said that the Android platform does not provide customers with a consistent user experience, and at the rate Android malware is proliferating and new Android-based products are launching, this could become a nightmare for both users and developers pretty quickly. Meanwhile, the best that can be said of the best Android-based phones and tablets is that they are almost as good as Apple products. Competition is good, but I don't see how any product out there can overtake Apple's commanding lead, ease of use, quality control, and seamless integration among a variety of devices.
Apple's iTunes Match was launched yesterday and is receiving rave reviews. I'm not a consumer of music, but my son-in-law is, and he reports that last night it took him only an hour and a half to install the latest version of iTunes on his computer, pay $25 to activate iTunes Match, and then let iTunes scan his 6,000 song music library. He now has his entire music collection—including many thousands of tracks that he had scanned from CDs over the years—in Apple's iCloud, available to listen to on his iPad, iPhone, and iMac. Very impressive, and he didn't have to upload any music to do this. iTunes Match even allows you to receive free a higher-quality version of a song you may have scanned long ago at a low bit-rate. It will be tough for others to beat this offering.
Full disclosure: I am long AAPL at the time of this writing.
Retail sales remain strong
October retail sales exceeded expectations (+0.5% vs. +0.3%), and this is one more sign that the economic slowdown which troubled financial markets in late summer is now a thing of the past. Retail sales have advanced 7.2% over the past year and continue to post new highs, despite the fact that there are 6.5 million fewer people working today than there were at the early-2008 high in employment. The U.S. economy has proved far more dynamic and resilient than expectations, and that is an important factor driving equity prices higher even as the world frets over the possible consequences of Eurozone sovereign debt defaults. U.S. economic growth can trump all sorts of ills.
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