Thursday, July 3, 2025

The June jobs report was not strong


Today's June jobs report is being touted as strong enough to put any chance of a Fed ease on hold. That's silly, in my view. Putting things in the proper perspective, today's job report was one more in a year's worth of mediocre numbers. Private sector jobs (the ones that really count) have been growing at a 1% rate for over a year, which is consistent with real GDP growth of about 2%, a bit less than we've seen since 2010. Nothing in this report should give the Fed a reason to keep monetary policy tight.  

2 comments:

Ai said...

It seems like the bill will cause more real world inflation than tariffs.

Roy said...

Thank you Scott. Do you think they are going or hoping for negative real rates to deal with the debt?