Since last February I've been noting the recovery in copper prices and arguing that this was a sign of recovery. Copper prices are now 172% above their lows of Dec. '08, and only 15% below their all-time highs. Not only has the economy's "fever" broken, but it appears to be regaining its former health quite rapidly, to judge by the huge recovery in copper prices.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteCopper rising is like pennies from heavan.
Have you ever done an estimate of how much the GDP would shrink if government did not run such a massive deficit.....Since the deficit is simply a product of Obamaprintorama...wouldn't any cutback in the deficit create a dollar for dollar contraction in the economy plus additional contraction from the multiplier effect?
I am not sure if you have noticed...but hundreds of state and local government have really started to increase taxes to make up for revenue shortfalls.
This is something to pay attention to as tax receipts are continuing to contract.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20100104/BREAKING/100109982/-1/LIVING?Title=State-budget-pictures-bleak
Looks like "plucking model" to me....
ReplyDeleteplease comment on the run up from 2002
ReplyDeleteAll commodities started to turn up in 2002. Monetary policy had just begun to be easy, and economies were pulling out of their 2001 recession. Easy money and expanding global growth drove nearly all commodity prices higher from 2004 on.
ReplyDelete