As I read this chart of weekly unemployment claims, there has been a steady decline in claims since reaching a high in late March. Claims are down from 674K per week to now just 550K, a drop of almost 20%. That's nice, but at this rate of decline it could take a little over two years for claims to return to the 325K level that would be consistent with a "normal" economy. It's clear improvement, but the return to healthy conditions is likely to be prolonged and painful, and we're likely going to be hearing a lot about how this is a "jobless recovery."
(The big drop in claims that occurred in the first week of July was due to faulty seasonal adjustment factors relating to auto plant closures. That's now history, and shouldn't be interpreted to mean that things have gotten worse since then.)
Dollar weak, oil at $70+, gold at a grand, and the 10YR at 3.36%.
ReplyDeleteInteresting times...
If we continue on this trend....clearly things will stabilize.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like the mood is much better these days.
When you view things on the margin, it helps give you a better perspective of where things are....
Alstry has changed his tune. Might be a signal of a reversal. Here is an interesting post from zero hedge.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/best-indicator-economic-health
"One thing is for sure propping the economy up because we can't tolerate volatility, whether it's in the GDP numbers or the stock market, is a very bad idea in the long term, and we have been doing it for a very long time.
If it works this time it will be worst the next. By trying to fight volatility we are guarantying explosions of volatility far more painful than what would occur otherwise."