With the economic and financial news in November and December about as grim as it's been for a long time, auto sales actually rose just a bit in December from their November levels (on a seasonally adjusted basis). The headlines you'll see, though, will say that sales in December were down 37%, but that of course refers to the change over the preceding 12 months. The big drop in auto sales is now water under the bridge, and it occurred from January through September; that's practically ancient history by now. The current level of sales is abysmally low—virtually off the charts—relative to population and relative to GDP, so there is little reason to expect they'll drop much further. Financing might be tough for some, but interest rates and lease rates are soon going to be about as low as they've ever been. It wouldn't take much for sales activity to pick up significantly in the next several months.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Auto sales have likely bottomed
With the economic and financial news in November and December about as grim as it's been for a long time, auto sales actually rose just a bit in December from their November levels (on a seasonally adjusted basis). The headlines you'll see, though, will say that sales in December were down 37%, but that of course refers to the change over the preceding 12 months. The big drop in auto sales is now water under the bridge, and it occurred from January through September; that's practically ancient history by now. The current level of sales is abysmally low—virtually off the charts—relative to population and relative to GDP, so there is little reason to expect they'll drop much further. Financing might be tough for some, but interest rates and lease rates are soon going to be about as low as they've ever been. It wouldn't take much for sales activity to pick up significantly in the next several months.
time to buy TBT US??
ReplyDeleteI don't think a bottom in sales comes even close to guaranteeing that TBT survive. Long term, their survival is a function of how much the UAW wants to give up.
ReplyDeletesorry was referring to the ETF...UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares is an exchange-traded fund
ReplyDeleteincorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond to
twice (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the corresponding Treasury
Bond.
Ok, I thought you meant The Big Three. Being short Treasuries makes sense here, with the major risk being that yields have to rise by a certain amount to make this pay off; if they linger at these levels or rise only modestly you can lose money.
ReplyDelete