June auto sales beat expectations (14.05 million vs 13.9), and the increase over the past year was a very impressive 23%. Sales never move in a straight line up or down, so it's the trend that is most important, and there is no sign that the trend has faltered. From the recession low of early 2009, sales are up over 50%. That's a robust gain of an annualized 14.5% rate, and strong evidence that the economic fundamentals are improving. The economy is still in recovery mode, to judge by this indicator.
The year over year change in car sales is positive
ReplyDeleteThe year over year change in housing
starts is positive very positive
The 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims
is moving steadily south
The year over year change in crude
oil prices is negative
2 year swap spreads are stuck at a
benign 25 level
These are not recessionary conditions....
Comparing year-over-year numbers of car sales at this point is a bit unfair since this time last year they took a tumble due to supply disruptions from the Japanese earthquake. By the fall we should have a better idea.
ReplyDeleteActually I use a 6 month moving average of the year over year Percentage change which yields a 11.7% positive....using the 6 month
ReplyDeletemoving average smooths out the erratic data without sacrificing its
predictability. Also the auto sales
to non farm payrolls employment is still significantly below its 35 year
average.
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ReplyDelete^
ReplyDeleteYeah, speaking of payrolls and auto sales, the 14.1 million SAAR number, according to my spreadsheet, (almost) guarantees a payroll number over 100K. I've got a spreadsheet with monthly auto sales and monthly payroll additions charted together, and for the past 2 years, the degree to which they go up and down in tandem from month to month is almost uncanny (you have to exclude Census jobs though)