Weekly claims for unemployment were unchanged from last week, and were a tiny bit lower than they were 3 weeks ago. The 4-week moving average of claims rose less than 2%. It's still looking to me like we've seen the worst of the news on the economy.
I was looking at the miseryindex website. It has the unemployment rate every yr since 1948. Every year there is high unemployment, the market has either a decent or in most cases a very high return. Clearly, UE is a lagging indicator. Question is how high can UE go? I also noticed that when UE is low it matches up with some of the lowest market returns.
Weekly claims for unemployment were unchanged from last week, and were a tiny bit lower than they were 3 weeks ago. The 4-week moving average of claims rose less than 2%. It's still looking to me like we've seen the worst of the news on the economy.
Donal Trump said on Letterman last night that the worst is yet to come. But he did not have a chart :-)
ReplyDeleteWhenever the majority of folks say that the worst is yet to come (especially when the President tells you that), you can bet it has already happened.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the miseryindex website. It has the unemployment rate every yr since 1948. Every year there is high unemployment, the market has either a decent or in most cases a very high return. Clearly, UE is a lagging indicator. Question is how high can UE go? I also noticed that when UE is low it matches up with some of the lowest market returns.
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