Private sector jobs are still growing

The headline jobs numbers were disappointing on the surface (+29K actual vs +90K expected). But one month's worth of data is not enough to know what the underlying trend is—jobs are notoriously volatile from month to month. I prefer to look at the 6- and 12-month growth rates of private sector jobs; those are the ones that matter. Government jobs have been stagnant for the past six months, and are down 1% over the past year. Flat to down government jobs are actually something to cheer about.

Chart #1

As Chart #1 shows, private sector jobs growth has actually been improving since earlier this year.

However, the rate of improvement is still quite modest, and hardly enough to warrant or justify another Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late October.