First-time claims for unemployment last week came in much lower than expected. This is more good news for the jobs market and the economy, since it means that businesses are facing very low levels of stress.
Relative to total jobs, the current level of claims is now about as low as it has ever been. The average worker has never had such a high level of job security—think of the above graph as a measure of the probability that a worker is laid off in any given week.
If the economy is doing so well, why is the Fed continuing its ZIRP policy?
ReplyDeleteGood question!
ReplyDeleteHistorically, claims this low indicated the top of a cycle. The strange thing is that there are so many more people working now than historically, making these the low claims even lower relatively speaking.
ReplyDeleteDo these charts on unemployment claims look like the beginning of the end is near...as was the case in 2000 and 2008?
ReplyDeleteNothing picked up the trouble coming as clearly as the uptick in unemployment claims during the pre-2000 and pre-2008 time frame.
The stock market does not appear ready for the drop in profit, write downs and restructurings that will come when the economy goes into the next recession.
Unemployment claims will be very interesting during the next couple of years.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJob security is essentially non-existent in the private sector -- may the public sector can claim to offer job security...
ReplyDelete