Industrial production still shows no sign whatsoever of a recession. Production is up 4.4% over the past year, and it has risen at a 3% annualized pace in the past six months.
Manufacturing production, which strips out utility output from the total, looks healthy also, having risen 5.1% in the past year, and up at an annualized pace of 2.6% in the past six months.
Production of business equipment continues to be very strong, up 12.4% in the past year, and rising at an annualized pace of 10.3% in the past six months. This measure of industrial output has now clearly exceeded its pre-recession high. Remember the V-shaped recovery? It's been long forgotten, but not when it comes to business equipment.
The July industrial production numbers all but rule out the recession that many have been looking for. The economy went through a bit of a soft patch in the first half of this year, but now looks to be picking up. The folks at ECRI have a lot more 'splainin to do.
Thanks for the commentary...
ReplyDeleteOECD composite leading indicators still point to easing in the pace of economic activity in most major economies
ReplyDelete"Moderating growth expected in the OECD area"
09/08/2012 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to an easing of economic activity in most major OECD economies and slowdowns in most major non-OECD economies.
The CLIs for Japan and the United States show signs of a fading growth momentum."
http://www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/compositeleadingindicatorsclisoecdaugust2012.htm
I wonder what US industrial output less defense has been over the past decade...
ReplyDeleteSo. Now two of the four indices, retail sales and industrial production, the NBER uses for pinpointing recessions, are up in their latest reporting periods.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot more people who may have some explaining to do than just the ECRI.