Truck tonnage has risen at about a 4-5% annual rate for the past few years. Over the past six months (abstracting from the apparent distortion in the December data), truck tonnage is up at an annualized rate of just over 6%; no sign of any recession here—just continued moderate growth. As the top chart shows, truck tonnage and equity prices tend to move together, since both are tied to the health of the economy. Calculated Risk has the story in greater detail.
The U.S. economy is trying hard to improve in spite of everything.
ReplyDeleteThe Japan problem is that there was too much debt and they didn't go through debt liquidation. Sound familiar?
Since the U.S. isn't going to allow for debt liquidation it should do structural reforms to achieve growth instead of stimulus to appeal to the cargo cult of aggregate demand.
Not related...But did you know the cost of total gasoline usage year over year is DOWN 7%....at the peak in July 2008 ( before the collapse) this year over year number was a + 34%
ReplyDeleteThe rail traffic index is down, although I personally consider the truck tonnage index more reliable..
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/rail-traffic-continues-to-turn-south-2012-4
CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index drops sharply for March.
ReplyDeleteBen Bernanke tells Lord Krugman to shut up.
There needs to be a way to reduce private sector debt so borrowing can start all over again.
Squire-
ReplyDeleteWhat? Private sector debt has come down fast. Companies are in the best financial shape in a generation. Consumer balance sheets strains are disappearing. The debt problem is 100% in the public sector.
Donny, that was a fastball right down the center of the plate!
ReplyDelete