November auto sales exceeded expectations (13.59M vs. 13.40M) and are up almost 11% in the past year. From the disastrous low in early 2009, sales are up almost 46%. They are still well below their pre-recession levels, but double-digit growth rates are nevertheless impressive.
Like corporate profits, this looks like another good long-leading indicator. Notice in the 80's expansion they peaked around 1987 and started edging down, a full 3 years before the recession. The 90's seem anomalous as they barely fell at all, but still you've got a smaller peak about a year (maybe less) before the recession. Then in the 2000's they peaked around 2005-6 before starting to fall.
ReplyDeleteSomebody should devise a long-leading index out of things like this.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteit's also a tiny part of the economy. it's pretty difficult to make a broad economic claim from such a small datapoint. doral real estate
ReplyDelete