Claims continue to slowly decline

Weekly claims for unemployment came in much lower than expected (391K vs. 420K). Bears probably think this is only temporary, but as the chart above of unadjusted claims shows, claims have been and continue to be in a downward trend on a year-over-year basis: -12.8%, in fact, relative to the same month last year. Most importantly, there is nothing here to suggest any deterioration whatsoever in the jobs market.

Next month unadjusted claims should, if seasonal patterns repeat themselves, begin to climb through year-end. If they don't, then we will see some pretty substantial declines in the adjusted numbers. Stay tuned, this could be interesting.