The good news just keeps piling up, but the mood of the market remains depressed. First time claims for unemployment last week fell by much more than expected, to 466,000. Claims are now down over 30% from the high reached last March. If claims were to continue to decline at last week's rate, the run rate for claims would reach a "normal" level of about 325,000 before the end of this year. Not that I expect that, but if this happened it would be rather remarkable, as it would equate to a much more rapid return to normal (only six months) than we saw after the last three recessions, when it took well over a year.
To get real technical the seasonal
ReplyDeletefactor two weeks from now is 1.402
if businesses are not hiring as much as in the past (as is likely)
this seasonal factor may be too high and we will likely see further
large drops in jobless claims....
Claims are DOWN on SA basis because on SA basis they always USED TO go down before Thanksgiving. However this year on NON-SA basis claims are UP versus previous week. When did it happen last time? Last year. When did it happen before that? Never. Therefore seasonal adjustment THINKS claims go do in this week and it makes them going down.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it is good news. It is just mathematics.
Check back in three weeks...
ReplyDelete