Here's an updated version of a chart I haven't shown in awhile. Obama continues to face declining popularity, driven of late by a declining number of strong supporters. Healthcare reform is just not a popular concept, and cap-and-trade remains in big trouble. All of this is good for the economy, however, since it means that the risk of ever-expanding government and rising tax burdens is declining.
I agree that the failure of these policies would certainly be good for the economy. Obama's failures hence have some upside.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with the Obama Presidency seems to me to be the lack of understanding that the US Presidency is foremost an executive role. Not a political partisan role.
The continuous reference to having to "clean up the mess" from the Bush era also shows a flawed understanding of what the Presidency entails. The display of hesitancy and apparent reversal of foreign policy without providing a clear direction may turn into a US foreign policy disaster.
This White House appears to have a very limited understanding of what is entailed by leadership. So even if there is a silver lining on the domestic front, I suspect that significant problems will develop over time.
Mr. Grannis:
ReplyDeleteHad a professor of Political-Economy that explained the notion of The Political Anger Factor in relation to unemployment. That when unemployment rises, the Political Anger Factor rises against incumbents. That when unemployment reaches 10% the Political Anger Factor begins to increase exponentially. Persistent unemployment above 10% removes incumbents from office.
Surely with a real unemployment rate north of 16%, that The Political Anger Factor is at work and is directly affecting the Democrat Majority and all their issues/policies. Polls indicate “Jobs” is the public’s number one issue. However, the Obama Administration and Congress are spot lighting what the public perceives as “back burner issues”.
"The continuous reference to having to "clean up the mess" from the Bush era also shows a flawed understanding of what the Presidency entails."
ReplyDeleteI could stomach Obama's incessant whining about Bush if Prez O was actually doing something constructive. Instead, his "solution" is to cover Bush's wave of debt with a tsunami of debt and then expect applause or something.
Thank you for posting this chart. Obama is providing an object lesson in what to do to sink an economy and the diff between SA and SD show the effect of the lesson. Also, Americans are understanding magnitude of debt and money creation(recently posted charts) which is a second negative object lesson.
ReplyDeleteI know this is off topic but could someone please explain the notion that there is still a lot of liquidity for the markets? Is this refering to the amount of money in money markets? At one time I think the number $3trillion was on the sidelines. Is this still true? Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi Scott,
ReplyDeleteCan you forward me your e-mail address to PTrolan@aol.com. I have a question for you.
Txs,
Pat Trolan
The blush is off the rose. The king has no clothes. Ignore the man behind the curtain, he's just a socialist. Finally, the slow process of discovery is producing the awareness that is needed to start to turn us around. This administration has focused on not wasting a good crisis and completely ignored the fact that "it's the economy, stupid" while the rest of the country was paying attention to unemployment and afraid of losing their homes.
ReplyDeleteLet us hope we only have 3 years and 3 months left of this. Carter's "great malaise" was a party compared to this.
The trend is your friend...
ReplyDeleteLet's hope the trend continues. Fundamentals indicate no change to the trend -- which is a good thing.
As Scott mentioned a month or two back, perhaps we'll be done with this as more people wake the heck up and realize the damage that is being done.
Bob: there are lots of sign of liquidity having returned to the markets. Swap spreads are back to normal. Credit spreads have declined hugely. Bid/ask spreads for Treasuries, TIPS and corporate bonds have come way down, corporations have sold hundreds of billions of new debt this year. The TED spread is back to normal. Things in general have improved immensely.
ReplyDeleteBob:
ReplyDeleteMr. Grannis is correct. However, you might want to look at John B. Taylor's book Getting Off Track.
The book gets into Liquidity vs Counter Party Risk.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response.
W.E.
I will check it out, thanks.
Bob
I'd love to see a chart showing the relationship between consumer confidence and Obama's approval rating.
ReplyDeleteMike: I think you would be disappointed. Consumer confidence has been rising while Obama's approval has been falling.
ReplyDeleteScott, exactly my point. They are inversely related. Democrats are saying that Obama's decline in the polls is because of the economy. It's not. It's because of his policies.
ReplyDelete