The beach is really packed today, and the weather is glorious. Here's a shot looking northwest, with the San Clemente pier in the upper right, and Dana Point at the top of the photo.
Scott....an indicator i watch is the six month rate of change in the unemployment rate...this number peaked with the numbers last Thursday...it should mean the recovery is near...
Investors, optimists by nature, eventually bought in.
But now, even though the second half has actually arrived, the curtain on the recovery has so far remained down and questions are being raised on whether it will go up at all.
Suddenly notable economists say the whole thing might not happen. Others, including Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, predict the curtain may go up for a brief period but then go crashing back down.
What gives?
It turns out the "consensus" of a second half recovery was never very solid.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- For months, policymakers from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on down told investors that a second-half recovery was a safe bet.
Safe bet? What competent business analyst could have thought that? Anyone think these guys are smoking green shoots?
I fail to see how one number (the employment report being 100K higher than expected) could mean the recovery has been delayed. Good grief, these numbers bounce around so much you can never base a forecast on any one thing. Market commentators have very little patience or conviction apparently.
It is not the extra 100K jobs reported last month that is the issue. It is the millions that will be lost in upcoming months where the problem rests.
I have a number of contacts in Health Care. Right now hospitals and clinics are sucking wind on a nationwide basis. You being a California resident live in the epicenter of government slowdown in spending.
With half our GDP State, Local, and Federal government spending, and half our government spending borrowed money.....the outlook for the second half is very NEGATIVE as spending will slow to compensate for lower income streams.
Scott, I am more interested in the view from your condo than market indicators. What is the indication from your deck? Seems like life is good. Will be in your area the first week of August and plan on taking a closer look. Enjoy the holiday.
Scott....an indicator i watch is
ReplyDeletethe six month rate of change in the
unemployment rate...this number peaked with the numbers last Thursday...it should mean the recovery is near...
Second-half recovery suddenly not a sure thing
ReplyDeleteInvestors, optimists by nature, eventually bought in.
But now, even though the second half has actually arrived, the curtain on the recovery has so far remained down and questions are being raised on whether it will go up at all.
Suddenly notable economists say the whole thing might not happen. Others, including Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, predict the curtain may go up for a brief period but then go crashing back down.
What gives?
It turns out the "consensus" of a second half recovery was never very solid.
This is how economists put it.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-half-recovery-suddenly-not-a-sure-thing
From the article above:
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- For months, policymakers from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on down told investors that a second-half recovery was a safe bet.
Safe bet? What competent business analyst could have thought that? Anyone think these guys are smoking green shoots?
I fail to see how one number (the employment report being 100K higher than expected) could mean the recovery has been delayed. Good grief, these numbers bounce around so much you can never base a forecast on any one thing. Market commentators have very little patience or conviction apparently.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteIt is not the extra 100K jobs reported last month that is the issue. It is the millions that will be lost in upcoming months where the problem rests.
I have a number of contacts in Health Care. Right now hospitals and clinics are sucking wind on a nationwide basis. You being a California resident live in the epicenter of government slowdown in spending.
With half our GDP State, Local, and Federal government spending, and half our government spending borrowed money.....the outlook for the second half is very NEGATIVE as spending will slow to compensate for lower income streams.
Scott, I am more interested in the view from your condo than market indicators. What is the indication from your deck? Seems like life is good. Will be in your area the first week of August and plan on taking a closer look. Enjoy the holiday.
ReplyDelete