Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Job losses likely to continue to slow

I featured this chart in a post about two months ago. It's taken from the Conference Board's monthly report that tracks online advertized job vacancies. As the blue line on this chart shows, labor demand actually increased in May, and clearly looks to have bottomed over the past several months. As before, this is an excellent leading indicator of improvement in the jobs market. It correctly forecast the lower-than-expected job losses reported for May, and suggests we will see more positive surprises in the months to come.
at

6 comments:

  1. dr. jJune 9, 2009 at 6:42 PM

    I am going to sing from the roof tops that the great O was right: he has saved or created, just as it was written. Logically impossible to refute and it just sounds so darned easy to believe. Perhaps we have become a nation of pathological believers.

    Thanks for doing this site. It is great to read facts and perspective. Very helpful. By the way, you might just thank me, because yesterday I saved the world.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Scott GrannisJune 9, 2009 at 7:05 PM

    Thanks for saving us! Now, if you can only turn sentiment strongly against big government and massive spending programs, you could save the economy!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Old GuyJune 9, 2009 at 7:48 PM

    Seems I asked this a couple of weeks ago:

    UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
    New Credit Conundrum Poses Risks to Economy

    By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
    The bond market could kill the supposed recovery that's spooked it.

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124450107077595811.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. ChadJune 9, 2009 at 8:42 PM

    Scott,

    This doesn't address job losses, per se. But First Trust put together an excellent piece supporting both their - and your - belief that a V-shaped recovery is in the cards. Great graphs!

    http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2009/6/9/v-shaped_recovery_underway

    ReplyDelete
  5. Scott GrannisJune 10, 2009 at 8:45 AM

    Thanks. Brian Wesbury at First Trust has been doing some good work.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Scott GrannisJune 10, 2009 at 8:47 AM

    Old Guy: I've addressed this issue in quite a few posts. Short answer: yields on Treasuries are rising because the economy is recovering. The recovery will be at risk only well after the Fed starts tightening. We're a very very long way from that.

    ReplyDelete