This is a follow up to yesterday's post. The point here is that major market bottoms almost always occur when panic reaches exceptionally high levels, as it did last November. If history is a guide (it doesn't always repeat, but it often does rhyme, as the saying goes), then the bear market lows occurred last November 21st. Sure hope so, as this bear market is getting very long in the tooth.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Equity prices test lows, but fear is far from its highs (2)
This is a follow up to yesterday's post. The point here is that major market bottoms almost always occur when panic reaches exceptionally high levels, as it did last November. If history is a guide (it doesn't always repeat, but it often does rhyme, as the saying goes), then the bear market lows occurred last November 21st. Sure hope so, as this bear market is getting very long in the tooth.
My sense is that we are at a plateau much like we experienced in the 1974-1975 crash or the 2001-2002 crash. We will see another 20% (or more) decrease in equity prices before this has bottomed (and then (obviously) get ready for the upside).
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ReplyDeleteLots of very good news on the bond issuance front in the past couple of days. Looks like the appetite for solid corporate debt is strengthening. This should begin to remove the "bankruptcy discount" from equities broadly. That alone is good for some movement higher IMHO. Then we'll have to hope we get some earnings stabilization or even improvement.
Mark: You remind me of a friend who, back in 1994, refused to buy QCOM at $1.00 because he was sure it was going to fall to $0.75 (split adjusted). I urged him to buy more (the stock had already fallen from $2.50 to $1), as I did, but he kept waiting for $0.75. And you know the rest of the story--QCOM is now $34 and he never bought any.
ReplyDeleteDonny: I think you're right, but it might turn out that as long as the news doesn't get worse, prices will rise.
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