Failing to keep things in perspective can lead to erroneous conclusions. Take this quote today from the WSJ: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 340 points as stocks came under pressure across the board amid growing concern that the global economy is sputtering." They go on to note that oil prices have fallen to $107/bbl, and commodity prices are skidding, all signs, supposedly, that the U.S. economy is headed for a fall along with the global economy. But as this chart shows, commodity prices are still extremely elevated. After HUGE runup in the past 5-6 years, it wouldn't be surprising to see them settle back a little. If commodity prices returned to their 2002 levels, then things might get ugly, but that remains to be seen.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Commodity prices are still very high
Failing to keep things in perspective can lead to erroneous conclusions. Take this quote today from the WSJ: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 340 points as stocks came under pressure across the board amid growing concern that the global economy is sputtering." They go on to note that oil prices have fallen to $107/bbl, and commodity prices are skidding, all signs, supposedly, that the U.S. economy is headed for a fall along with the global economy. But as this chart shows, commodity prices are still extremely elevated. After HUGE runup in the past 5-6 years, it wouldn't be surprising to see them settle back a little. If commodity prices returned to their 2002 levels, then things might get ugly, but that remains to be seen.
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