tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post926863050939503493..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Housing starts weak but still better than last yearScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-83260012423058359562010-07-22T14:29:24.833-07:002010-07-22T14:29:24.833-07:00Frozen,
Do not beat yourself up. The media is ful...Frozen,<br /><br />Do not beat yourself up. The media is full of pessimists and the doom&gloom merchants are given large amounts of air time. <br /><br />When I was working I would constantly test my convictions with what I called the 'ease indicator'. It is predicated on the assumption that every decision is either right or wrong. If it felt easy to do, it was probably wrong. If it Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7284374191437407462010-07-22T06:07:02.791-07:002010-07-22T06:07:02.791-07:00John:
I cannot argue with your logic. I'm be...John:<br /><br />I cannot argue with your logic. I'm being a bad investors, my brain agrees with you, my heart doesn't follow.Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62102297485138066172010-07-21T16:53:35.314-07:002010-07-21T16:53:35.314-07:00Frozen,
Lets look at big bank that I believe is c...Frozen,<br /><br />Lets look at big bank that I believe is characteristic of what I have been trying to say: First, full disclosure, they bought my old securities firm A.G. Edwards & Sons and their securities unit has been merged into our home office in St. Louis. The bank is Wells Fargo. They bought Wachovia Bank and are now coast to coast. I still own shares of Wells. <br /><br />They Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20779628902956614252010-07-21T15:01:26.015-07:002010-07-21T15:01:26.015-07:00John:
Good point with regards to the recovery. I...John:<br /><br />Good point with regards to the recovery. I'm also firmly of the school of no double dip, although not a strong recovery.<br /><br />The question as to the right time to invest in banks is a good one. From my point of view this is not a normal recession, it is a deleveraging exercise by overstretch borrowers. I don't know if you follow Bronte Capital http://Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29159664334415773052010-07-21T14:05:14.946-07:002010-07-21T14:05:14.946-07:00Frozen,
You have articulated well my primary obje...Frozen,<br /><br />You have articulated well my primary objection to building/storing wealth in a bank stock. The average investor has no idea what, specificly, a bank's assets are. It requires a huge leap of faith, or an intimate knowledge of the character of a bank's management to be a long term investor in a bank. I got a brutal reminder of this during the 2008 bank meltdown. I was Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70764278161669458392010-07-21T09:50:56.822-07:002010-07-21T09:50:56.822-07:00On investing in banks:
No offense to John's p...On investing in banks:<br /><br />No offense to John's point of view, and looking at US banks only, the fundamental problem is that because of FASB 157, the investing public has no idea as to the composition, and the fair market value of the banks' asset.<br /><br />Just as an example US banks are carrying $840 billion in second mortages at par, does anyone believe that there is no Frozen in the Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04901959687094626879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54173355727985853082010-07-21T08:51:31.499-07:002010-07-21T08:51:31.499-07:00Mark,
I think you hit it spot on. It's not ab...Mark,<br /><br />I think you hit it spot on. It's not about inflation or deflation. Rather, the instability created by the Federal Reserve. <br /><br />Evidence continues to mount against a Fed wildly off the mark for a few decades now. To think these same folks will deliver us a different result is insanity. <br /><br />If we were in the book 1984, Bernanke could simply have his Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14599924145539930512010-07-21T07:22:12.821-07:002010-07-21T07:22:12.821-07:00PublicLibrary wrote:
Benj, the Fed is the problem...PublicLibrary wrote:<br /><br />Benj, the Fed is the problem and they have no clue what their actions do to the economy. During the 'Great Moderation' the Fed thought it was in control when really it was simply a spectator adding additional fuel to the fire.<br /><br />I think this summary strikes at the core of what has happened. Sadly, it appears it is a summary of what is still Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58222831471392888362010-07-20T20:43:57.261-07:002010-07-20T20:43:57.261-07:00Benj,
Ben testifies tomorrow. It will be interest...Benj,<br /><br />Ben testifies tomorrow. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say. <br /><br />I am out virtually all morning but hope to catch up tomorrow afternoon.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-56871607621282682562010-07-20T20:34:44.927-07:002010-07-20T20:34:44.927-07:00Krispyhooch,
I'll take a stab at your banking...Krispyhooch,<br /><br />I'll take a stab at your banking industry question. <br /><br />In my opinion we will not be successful in bringing unemployment down without a healthy and profitable banking industry. Having said that, many bankers have been less than honorable in their business dealings in the last few years so it has become necessary to involve the industry with more government Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37232417338379450712010-07-20T20:09:46.303-07:002010-07-20T20:09:46.303-07:00I just made a post on my blog about the Spanish.. ...I just made a post on my blog about the Spanish.. here's a few factoids: "Spanish banks borrowed a record 126.3 billion euros ($161 billion) from the European Central Bank in June. This represents a 48 percent increase from the €85.6 billion borrowed in May" and "The just completed auction of Spanish 2025 Obligacions for just under €3 billion, came at a 5.116% yield, a Mr. Kowalskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899577790533734474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48116372293077554072010-07-20T19:53:54.190-07:002010-07-20T19:53:54.190-07:00Daniel,
Thank you. If anyone is looking for top l...Daniel,<br /><br />Thank you. If anyone is looking for top line growth the search ends here. <br /><br />Sales were $15.7 Billion up 60% year over year. They have guided to $18 Billion for the fourth quarter. It will likely be topped. <br /><br />EPS was $3.51, .40 ahead of consensus. <br /><br />The i-Pad shipped 3.27 million units in 10 countries, well ahead of expectations. There were 3.47 Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54313505650817614222010-07-20T15:25:01.439-07:002010-07-20T15:25:01.439-07:00time for an Apple update :)time for an Apple update :)Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17218368702832658780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-12073594260107494282010-07-20T15:21:35.240-07:002010-07-20T15:21:35.240-07:00Residential housing will creep up at a 10% annual ...Residential housing will creep up at a 10% annual pace for the next five years. There is no hope for this sector to drive the economy forward. We can ignore it. <br /><br />Gradually the housing inventory is being worked off but people are doubling up or moving in with relatives due to the high level and duration of unemployment.<br /><br />Growth in consumer spending will not drive the economy Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00607057013050715435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-7930763754946157322010-07-20T15:07:28.076-07:002010-07-20T15:07:28.076-07:00John,
Did you miss the memo from McKinsey about s...John,<br /><br />Did you miss the memo from McKinsey about sell-side predictions of earnings?<br /><br />https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Equity_analysts_Still_too_bullish_2565<br /><br />Companies are making money by slashing costs, not growing top-line numbers. Also, companies will need cash on-hand versus the heady days of borrowing until the sun didn't shining. <br /><br />And do you Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75978090256757846742010-07-20T13:21:02.364-07:002010-07-20T13:21:02.364-07:00John-
I have no inside poop or anything else on t...John-<br /><br />I have no inside poop or anything else on the Fed.<br /> <br />But I have noticed an increased number of Fed speeches, and studies, on the topic of quantitative easing on their website. It is purprising this has not received more recognition. <br /><br />Frankly, I think the Fed knows we face a deflation spectre. The CPI is down three months in a row, and PPI is sinking too. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-3385894370838906122010-07-20T13:15:57.153-07:002010-07-20T13:15:57.153-07:00Remember residential investment is
now only 2.4% ...Remember residential investment is <br />now only 2.4% of GDP...a double dip<br />will have to come from a cutback<br />in personal consumption growth and<br />even that is touch and go to<br />create negative real GDP growthbroderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52710587876541137692010-07-20T11:57:30.509-07:002010-07-20T11:57:30.509-07:00Scott,
Disagree with the housing starts showing a...Scott,<br /><br />Disagree with the housing starts showing anything positive.This series will be of an "L" curve shape.<br /><br />Historical average volume is still many years away. That build rate would represent a 100% increase over these historic lows, yet won't be attained for several years into the future.<br /><br />Why? The ramp-up to building houses has a LONG lead time andSisyphushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16498785567024020255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41938709613085832262010-07-20T11:43:02.956-07:002010-07-20T11:43:02.956-07:00Guys,
Scott is on vacation. We are fortunate he i...Guys,<br /><br />Scott is on vacation. We are fortunate he is blogging at all. Out of respect for our host I suggest we wait for his return to request answers to specific questions from him. He undoubtedly will read the posts as he has time and may choose to answer but lets not look for it. <br /><br />We have a lot of VERY good posters on this blog. Some may enjoy discussing questions posed by Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21400434953172528072010-07-20T11:31:28.874-07:002010-07-20T11:31:28.874-07:00Scott,
Am enjoying your trip vicariously. I am tr...Scott,<br /><br />Am enjoying your trip vicariously. I am truly surprised you continue to blog as you go. I for one am thankful. The pictures are terrific. <br /><br />A couple of things of note today:<br /><br />1) I am reading of RUMORS that the Fed is about to eliminate the .25% interest it pays member banks on their deposits at Federal Reserve banks. If this in fact occurs, I will have been Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33970147304574659552010-07-20T11:20:40.827-07:002010-07-20T11:20:40.827-07:00The economy appears to be stalling.
We need a ver...The economy appears to be stalling.<br /><br />We need a very aggressive Fed. <br /><br />Or maybe we can all move to the Far East.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57590056868378591532010-07-20T11:14:02.207-07:002010-07-20T11:14:02.207-07:00Hi Scott,
looks like you are having a great vacati...Hi Scott,<br />looks like you are having a great vacation.<br />I was wondering if you could comment on the banking industry. I have been reading a lot of dick bove and meredith whitney lately and would like to know what you think the future holds for the big banks and how they could either help the economy or harm the economy.<br />Can we argue that they are a leading indicator for the market krispyhoochiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02825653444132300520noreply@blogger.com