tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post9078547146267025050..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: The 13% GDP gapScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79280959647074593662012-01-29T18:51:06.091-08:002012-01-29T18:51:06.091-08:00What do people think about the possibility/probabi...What do people think about the possibility/probability that the GDP deflator gets revised upwards?JGWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06672352566018365809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4697072278887114542012-01-29T06:04:54.716-08:002012-01-29T06:04:54.716-08:00Any thoughts on the Baltic Dry Index? Specificall...Any thoughts on the Baltic Dry Index? Specifically, what the steep drop portends?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33039926512970503812012-01-28T14:41:33.737-08:002012-01-28T14:41:33.737-08:00I think Gerber is right. You've got to consid...I think Gerber is right. You've got to consider demographics when looking at the decline in spending. The baby boomers hit their prime in the '80s and '90s and are now in decline. However, I have seen some encouraging data that suggests we might have another boom by 2015 when the baby boomlets start their peak spending.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-2771634297297567972012-01-28T13:51:27.425-08:002012-01-28T13:51:27.425-08:00I wouldn't suppose it has anything to do with ...I wouldn't suppose it has anything to do with the fact that in 2008 the biggest age cohort, namely the baby boomers, crossed over the prime age of 50 and started their decent into what we call retirement? Naw ... that's too simple minded of an explanation. Why look at the people that make up the economy when we have hundreds of stats and economic theories to consider.Mark Gerberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07980096984624964261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67113637707151197532012-01-28T12:41:06.752-08:002012-01-28T12:41:06.752-08:00Note that the decline in government spending that ...Note that the decline in government spending that weakened Q4 GDP is not the same as money the government sends out in the form of transfer payments. Government spending only counts for GDP if it involves the actual purchase of goods or services.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62411274457488982122012-01-28T09:11:10.918-08:002012-01-28T09:11:10.918-08:00From David Glasner, evidently the GDP deflator ran...From David Glasner, evidently the GDP deflator ran of 0.4 percent annual rate for the fourth quarter. <br /><br />"The other striking result of the GDP report is that NGDP growth actually fell in the fourth quarter to a 3.2% annual rate, implying that inflation as measured by the GDP price deflator was only at a 0.4% annual rate, a sharp decline from the 2.6-2.7% rates of the previous three Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51935878420627445122012-01-28T08:55:23.410-08:002012-01-28T08:55:23.410-08:00Scott, can you comment on some of the negativity o...Scott, can you comment on some of the negativity out there that says that 1.9% of the 2.8% gdp was inventory replenishment and that it should be discounted. Some are saying there is indeed a recessionary trend in gdp currently.L.A.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17235323298066514444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74058841971029499612012-01-27T22:01:55.951-08:002012-01-27T22:01:55.951-08:00Postponable Purchases to GDP is
now 17.67%.The 65 ...Postponable Purchases to GDP is<br />now 17.67%.The 65 year average is<br />20.58%. The 9 year average is 20.04%. No recession has occurred<br />unless first this average has gone<br />above 20%. With Residential Investment at 2.26% (a component of<br />Postponable Purchases) there is a lot more room to run.broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11110686387315148482012-01-27T19:43:48.929-08:002012-01-27T19:43:48.929-08:00I agree with Sgt., that this is a rather pathetic ...I agree with Sgt., that this is a rather pathetic growth rate, considering that we are three past the recession...<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/gdp-on-recession-track-real-gdp-28.htmlHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59612352286712906322012-01-27T19:10:39.481-08:002012-01-27T19:10:39.481-08:00Virtually no growth in recent 'recovery' a...Virtually no growth in recent 'recovery' as compared to the median post WW II recoveries (by quarter) after recession(s) ended since 1949.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/1/27/recoveries-dont-get-much-weaker-than-this.html" rel="nofollow">Weakest Recovery</a>sgt.red.blue.redhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08132657702786638326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79117023573829613432012-01-27T19:08:00.583-08:002012-01-27T19:08:00.583-08:00Great Post Scott!Great Post Scott!Junkyard_hawg1985https://www.blogger.com/profile/18114117558513498514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9616513326698960712012-01-27T18:30:22.005-08:002012-01-27T18:30:22.005-08:00"The precise cause of this huge output gap wi..."The precise cause of this huge output gap will be the subject of discussion among economists for years"<br /><br />The Bondad Blog already offers a data-supported explanation: austerity. Specifically cuts in the government expenditures.<br /><br />http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012<br />/01/really-austerity-it-really-stupid-idea.htmlJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06365403570563730880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21225922406095942792012-01-27T14:35:30.080-08:002012-01-27T14:35:30.080-08:00Excellent commentary, as always, by Scott Grannis....Excellent commentary, as always, by Scott Grannis.<br /><br />As Scott somewhat points out, although energy prices are up 10 percent or so y-o-y, we are seeing no general inflation, and minor deflation. Commodities do not reflect US inflation or monetary policy, and there is a ceiling on commodity prices, and we are about there now.<br /><br />This strongly suggests the Fed's new job is not Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36282784459078468732012-01-27T14:21:41.839-08:002012-01-27T14:21:41.839-08:00What's also unprecedented is the total collaps...What's also unprecedented is the total collapse of the housing market since 2007 and barely any recovery there as well as commercial construction. It's easy to say that housing itself is a smaller % of GDP but there are so many industries affected by it that I don't think you can underestimate how much it has to do with the weak recovery. Atlanta has recovered only 19% of its Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72750970787519221112012-01-27T14:13:46.088-08:002012-01-27T14:13:46.088-08:00BTW, regarding jobs ...
I don't think anyone ...BTW, regarding jobs ...<br /><br />I don't think anyone is going to be ready for this. My back-of-the-envelope calculation of jobs based on withholding tax receipts says we could get in the +350K range.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67494907857829673622012-01-27T13:58:23.093-08:002012-01-27T13:58:23.093-08:00brodero: as the second chart shows, we've neve...brodero: as the second chart shows, we've never before seen an expansion in transfer payments such as has occurred since 2008.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82065576734288995632012-01-27T13:53:18.425-08:002012-01-27T13:53:18.425-08:00Believe it or not, the weather may also be to blam...Believe it or not, the weather may also be to blame, at least in part:<br /><br /><a href="http://modeledbehavior.com/2012/01/27/gdp-and-me/" rel="nofollow">Modeled Behavior</a><br />^<br /><b>"For example, personal consumption expenditures were weak at a 2.0% growth rate, but this is largely because Services came in a 0.2% which in turn is because Housing and Utilities Services declined by Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70707326839019027982012-01-27T13:49:14.337-08:002012-01-27T13:49:14.337-08:00" highly unusual expansion of government spen..." highly unusual expansion of government spending (mostly in the form of transfer payments) over this same period as the leading culprit."<br /><br /> What about Reagan?broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17510948491117506660noreply@blogger.com