tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8799514689388450442..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Key charts to watchScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78094030652494065432016-01-20T18:37:24.173-08:002016-01-20T18:37:24.173-08:00I put cash to work today and bought stocks, if any...I put cash to work today and bought stocks, if anybody gives a rip. <br />Too many indicators are washed out. Way washed out.<br />Former leaders (drugs/biotechs) started screaming higher while stocks were down 500. <br />Next leg is higher, imo.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75979416762038822472016-01-20T06:32:01.633-08:002016-01-20T06:32:01.633-08:00So far, the market likes Bullard better than Dudle...So far, the market likes Bullard better than Dudley.<br />We can say it shouldn't...but it just does.<br />Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46340849733303027712016-01-18T17:06:47.440-08:002016-01-18T17:06:47.440-08:00BTW for the brave. The Hong Kong exchange is tradi...BTW for the brave. The Hong Kong exchange is trading at an average PE of 8.7. There are REITs on the HK exchange offering nearly 9% dividends. One hotel REIT is trading at 40% of net asset value.<br /><br />Someday people may look back at this the way we look back at the 1970s. You mean you could buy stocks in single-digit PE'S?<br /><br />Right now, the world's major central banks are Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64813591788541869832016-01-18T11:05:41.748-08:002016-01-18T11:05:41.748-08:00Hi Hans, I like your choice of words -- the coming...Hi Hans, I like your choice of words -- the coming earnings reports are front of mind for me.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40376588229778096622016-01-18T10:41:49.024-08:002016-01-18T10:41:49.024-08:00"Hi Hans, rents and dividends are my key indi...<br />"Hi Hans, rents and dividends are my key indicators" <br /><br />Dr McKibbin, we are all in the same boat. In TVIX at $9.oo, out at $9.70.<br /><br />Closed our XLE put (Mar55) position with a double. Holding NRZ, ($11.75) with a<br />15% divy yield and picked up GAIN at $7.oo with a 10.5% yield.<br /><br />No doubt, finding reasonable yields and values has become most difficultHanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68626948106210909042016-01-18T06:30:43.008-08:002016-01-18T06:30:43.008-08:00you and your charts. just post your emini wins/lo...you and your charts. just post your emini wins/losses daily. would speak more. marcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85971537141853437552016-01-17T21:27:47.185-08:002016-01-17T21:27:47.185-08:00Scott Grannis: I think your observations (as alway...Scott Grannis: I think your observations (as always) are very shrewd. The Saudis would love the run the frackers off the face of the earth.<br /><br />I think the Saudis face the problem that frackers will continue to produce oil at the marginal cost of production. Sure, no more new drilling, and maybe lenders do not get paid back, and equity evaporates. But if it costs $29 to produce a barrel ofBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78907264750747950332016-01-17T10:58:39.792-08:002016-01-17T10:58:39.792-08:00It occurred to me the other day, while discussing ...It occurred to me the other day, while discussing the current market turmoil, that what is going on can be illustrated by a simple analogy: OPEC is playing a giant game of chicken with the U.S. fracking industry. OPEC is determined to not cede market share, and OPEC figures it has a lower cost of production and more staying power than the U.S. upstarts. <br /><br />At some point, someone is Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34119545126079219642016-01-17T08:59:54.610-08:002016-01-17T08:59:54.610-08:00The good news is that value follows when confronte...The good news is that value follows when confronted with...<br /><br />https://twitter.com/McKibbinUSA/status/688746696864473088<br /><br />What is everyone buying these days?McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81579440713458520342016-01-17T04:13:17.805-08:002016-01-17T04:13:17.805-08:00BTW, the PPI fell 1% in 2016. Deflation. Yes, I kn...BTW, the PPI fell 1% in 2016. Deflation. Yes, I know "oil." <br /><br />Still, if the PPI rises 5% in one year, will people say "oil"? Or insist a wave of hyperinflation is pending? Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79609214956799895722016-01-16T22:34:35.420-08:002016-01-16T22:34:35.420-08:00I've started reading Scott's posts from 20...I've started reading Scott's posts from 2008; they are absolutely amazing, Scott managed to keep his conviction and wisdom with all that mess going around. Here's one from November 2008:<br /><br />"Whatever ails this economy, it is most definitely not a shortage of money or a credit squeeze. This chart shows just how dramatically the Fed has responded to the subprime crisis. InRoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-25020414560578123102016-01-16T22:32:37.835-08:002016-01-16T22:32:37.835-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84974870674600059512016-01-16T18:37:22.283-08:002016-01-16T18:37:22.283-08:00Andrew: you are looking at the 2-yr swap rate, not...Andrew: you are looking at the 2-yr swap rate, not the spread. To get the spread you have to subtract the 2-yr treasury yield which currently is just under 1%. Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38540497422843306762016-01-16T17:40:37.743-08:002016-01-16T17:40:37.743-08:00Scott;
This chart from the St. Louise FRED data s...Scott;<br /><br />This chart from the St. Louise FRED data shows 2 year swap spreads to be 1.11%, the highest over the last 5 years. It differs from the chart in your blog.<br /><br />Why the difference?<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WSWP2Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01390035459036380103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77027751015259557762016-01-16T13:51:29.364-08:002016-01-16T13:51:29.364-08:00Ahhh..."William" who makes personal atta...Ahhh..."William" who makes personal attacks says I am the Troll. Guess I will look up that definition again. Don't worry, Bill. I can take it! Mama likes my picture, and that's good enough for me!Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11740144012225787472016-01-16T13:42:36.417-08:002016-01-16T13:42:36.417-08:00Thanks for the updates to these charts, Scott.
I ...Thanks for the updates to these charts, Scott.<br /><br />I noticed that Bullard made dovish comments and stocks rose 300 intraday. Dudley made hawkish statements the next morning, and stocks fell 500. So it seems to me that the Fed hike still matters...however accommodative they remain.<br /><br />Rig count has fallen 2/3 in less than a year and a half, but productivity still has us pumping Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-50959279682963892272016-01-16T09:13:09.211-08:002016-01-16T09:13:09.211-08:00P.S. I'm searching for value...P.S. I'm searching for value...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52141501666486300512016-01-16T09:08:27.308-08:002016-01-16T09:08:27.308-08:00Hi Hans, rents and dividends are my key indicators...Hi Hans, rents and dividends are my key indicators -- but with bonds earning nothing, I'm not sure what to do with cash -- maybe just stack it away -- but cheap commodities may yet emerge -- I guess I'm just fishing away for what others are thinking and doing -- of course, a Dow 6,000 or gold $500 would settle my buying decisions -- but I tend to think we won't get both...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55862707868206970712016-01-16T06:49:22.306-08:002016-01-16T06:49:22.306-08:00"McKibbin - what motivates you to post such n..."McKibbin - what motivates you to post such non-sense on this fine and useful blog??"<br /><br />Dr McKibbin, has fallen under the influence of Kirby the Crank.<br /><br />Sorry, but most if not all indexes using Au as some type of<br />indicator of future actions will be highly disappointed.<br /><br />2016 is not going to be a good year for the markets nor the<br />economy in general.Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43448868920025056682016-01-16T06:05:26.462-08:002016-01-16T06:05:26.462-08:00William: wise words are "Live and let live.&q...William: wise words are "Live and let live." I enjoy the positive or honest commentary here. Everyone has a point of view, and hey that's fine by me.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-71851135428249742762016-01-15T18:14:04.276-08:002016-01-15T18:14:04.276-08:00Too funny, why is it the guys with the most Goofy ...Too funny, why is it the guys with the most Goofy photos post the most goofy comments. Jonhny, are you reading this?? lol<br /><br />Must be a correlation there somewhere!! OH, TROLLS - needing attention. Posting the same non-sense over and over again. Benjamin, are you reading this??<br /><br />It is just too funny, how markets' falling bring out these guys.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64976942459679077562016-01-15T17:24:40.625-08:002016-01-15T17:24:40.625-08:00For more than 30 years we have seen falling rates ...For more than 30 years we have seen falling rates of inflation and interest globally. The world's central banks have ossified into inflation-fighting stances, possibly excluding the People's Bank of China and to some degree the Bank of Japan. The BoJ went through this problem of weak demand and dead inflation already. In literature expelled from US Federal Reserve orifices, we see Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-67060027149483327432016-01-15T15:23:20.256-08:002016-01-15T15:23:20.256-08:00P.P S. ""Hope for the best, but plan for...P.P S. ""Hope for the best, but plan for the worst "McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74837494737386978732016-01-15T15:21:59.617-08:002016-01-15T15:21:59.617-08:00P.S. I hate to lose money...P.S. I hate to lose money...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13959665934003238962016-01-15T15:20:43.548-08:002016-01-15T15:20:43.548-08:00And yes, I am having a drink right now -- today wa...And yes, I am having a drink right now -- today was another horrible day in the markets -- my estate is holding, and my investment policy is working -- but that doesn't mean I'm not feeling it in valuations -- thank God for rents and dividends...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com