tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8602519393569607497..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Service sector continues to growScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1031314040101337392016-07-07T17:53:24.361-07:002016-07-07T17:53:24.361-07:00Matthew, re credit crackups: Credit problems inevi...Matthew, re credit crackups: Credit problems inevitably follow economic distress, so that's the thing to look for. In the meantime, I note that swap spreads are very low in the US and only modestly elevated in Europe (40 bps or so). This tells me that the financial system is not suffering from systemic problems. That doesn't guarantee no credit events, of course, but for now, if they Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61846874265568813502016-07-06T17:47:12.868-07:002016-07-06T17:47:12.868-07:00It is true that manufacturing is 9% of payrolls.
...It is true that manufacturing is 9% of payrolls. <br /><br />But each manufacturing job generates another two to three jobs in related services, such as transportation and administration.<br /><br />There is also another idea not often discussed today. A region must export goods or services in order to have income to the region. Tourism is another source of income, or if you are a globaIista in Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8513265990775715442016-07-06T16:59:39.960-07:002016-07-06T16:59:39.960-07:00Marcus got killed last year when he said he was sh...Marcus got killed last year when he said he was shorting....right before stocks rallied. Brutal.<br />He has been babbling incessantly ever since. I guess its shell shock.Johnny Bee Dawghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06836875640973245734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10350676698662846382016-07-06T14:34:34.965-07:002016-07-06T14:34:34.965-07:00I'll second what Matthew says. Scott, cont you...I'll second what Matthew says. Scott, cont you lose this loser?stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45162140704642555932016-07-06T09:21:40.567-07:002016-07-06T09:21:40.567-07:00My goodness, Marcus, you're an insufferable bo...My goodness, Marcus, you're an insufferable bore.<br /><br />So you're buying bonds now? What do you see in six months? Why don't you go on the record with some hard and fast predictions, since you seem to be able to divine precisely what it is the bond market is telling us? At least lower yourself to explaining your obviously deep insights.<br /><br />Short of this, please pour Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55203106366163954362016-07-06T08:49:59.583-07:002016-07-06T08:49:59.583-07:00rt. a diffusion index is "smarter" than ...rt. a diffusion index is "smarter" than the bond market. we demand more QEmarcusbalbushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13596266889368486043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68700593935141878232016-07-06T08:27:12.951-07:002016-07-06T08:27:12.951-07:00Scott: I'd be keenly interested in any of your...Scott: I'd be keenly interested in any of your up-to-date readings of all things related to credit.<br /><br />While I'm highly sympathetic to your observation that stocks are cheap relative to bonds and that bond yields are reflective of over-the-top fear, I'm worried about credit crack-ups.<br /><br />I've been watching four Euro bank charts, two on the continent and two in the Grechsterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08898953158865778397noreply@blogger.com