tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8587345409761766963..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Still more encouraging signsScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57369860841465465012016-06-10T10:10:21.544-07:002016-06-10T10:10:21.544-07:00Steve--good answer.
Yields keep going down for no...Steve--good answer.<br /><br />Yields keep going down for now.<br /><br />Big rally in bonds and gold.<br /><br />For 30 years msinstream economists have predicted higher inflation and interest rates.<br /><br />The Chicago Cubs look good this year...Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-635656237761344892016-06-09T10:18:49.698-07:002016-06-09T10:18:49.698-07:00Ben, no yields on japanese bonds did not and THAT ...Ben, no yields on japanese bonds did not and THAT is my point; once the possibility of an event that most certainly could happen is discounted to zero then you enter a very dangerous mindset. Just because it hasn't happened YET doesn't mean it can't happen ever. Bonds got HAMMERED in the 1970's. I am not calling for this to occur anytime soon but I remain vigilant. stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38465791915317247322016-06-09T08:55:49.396-07:002016-06-09T08:55:49.396-07:00vg, re C&I Loan delinquency rates: I've co...vg, re C&I Loan delinquency rates: I've commented on this in a previous comment on a recent post but it bears repeating. The delinquency rate for C&I Loans is up on the margin (to 1.5% from an all-time low of 0.7%) but it is still very low from a long-term historical perspective (30-yr average rate is 2.8%). From 1987 (earliest data) through mid-2005 the delinquency rate never fell Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18452885216181014332016-06-09T08:06:00.550-07:002016-06-09T08:06:00.550-07:00Steve--in your 20 years, did yields on Japanese bo...Steve--in your 20 years, did yields on Japanese bonds ever go up and stay up?<br /><br />Why would they in future?Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-9577241793026838432016-06-09T04:05:30.321-07:002016-06-09T04:05:30.321-07:00Having been a bond trader for over 20 years I thin...Having been a bond trader for over 20 years I think I can say without any compunction that there is more than just risk aversion going on in the bond pits that is driving yields to historic lows. What it is exactly-I don't know (neither does anyone else) but I SUSPECT it's a combination of factors; for sure there's some complacency, the bond market has been a very low volatile and stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07387986994469835875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6866518731829373972016-06-09T00:11:06.921-07:002016-06-09T00:11:06.921-07:00It would be interesting to see an overlay of runni...It would be interesting to see an overlay of running delinquency/default rates on the C&I Loans chart. Does an uptick in that measure give you any pause? vghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12084946645104339851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15705179150178144892016-06-08T21:30:19.553-07:002016-06-08T21:30:19.553-07:00Here are some charts that some may find useful...
...Here are some charts that some may find useful...<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-08/visualizing-long-run-18-stunning-chartsMcKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74667719627218535052016-06-08T17:02:53.441-07:002016-06-08T17:02:53.441-07:00Great post.
I do wonder if "risk aversion&qu...Great post.<br /><br />I do wonder if "risk aversion" explains declining government bond yields, or rather abundant capital and declining inflation.<br /><br />Toyota Finance (part of the motor giant) plans to issue bonds that pay negligible interest.<br /><br />Interest rates have been falling since the early 1980s. <br /> <br /><br />Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com