tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post852652753478606810..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Claims may signal recession endScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-87099344312640036512009-04-16T11:09:00.000-07:002009-04-16T11:09:00.000-07:00Hmm. Did something else happen in 2H '01...? I s...Hmm. Did something else happen in 2H '01...? I seem to remember something. What was it...?Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91613015745097580942009-04-16T10:56:00.000-07:002009-04-16T10:56:00.000-07:00I think the dip on the chart that Miller refers to...I think the dip on the chart that Miller refers to is in 2001, not in 2002.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41360367518284117422009-04-16T10:53:00.000-07:002009-04-16T10:53:00.000-07:00Miller-
Remember that in 2002, there was an extens...Miller-<br />Remember that in 2002, there was an extension of UI benefits that came out of Congress. A few analysts got it right and saw that claims would spike up again as more people signed on for a few more weeks of the gov't cheese, but that the spike would not be indicateive.Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17306092814056716542009-04-16T10:13:00.000-07:002009-04-16T10:13:00.000-07:00No way to know, of course, until more facts come i...No way to know, of course, until more facts come in. Meanwhile, I would note the following which would support the guess that this time we have seen the peak in claims: 1) the recession has been underway for over 15 months, 2) online job postings are rising, 3) implied volatility in the markets is way down, meaning fears have declined and that is what bottoms are all about, 4) commodity prices Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77929100370662728782009-04-16T09:35:00.000-07:002009-04-16T09:35:00.000-07:00Scott,
Previous recession in 2002 showed a slight...Scott,<br /><br />Previous recession in 2002 showed a slight dip then went up much higher. <br /><br />How do we know its not a repeat?M Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05762326550608359675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-38866230886776130942009-04-16T09:07:00.000-07:002009-04-16T09:07:00.000-07:00Thanks, that's very encouraging.Thanks, that's very encouraging.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39422198114180401722009-04-16T09:03:00.000-07:002009-04-16T09:03:00.000-07:00Scott-
This is consistent with what I hear anecdot...Scott-<br />This is consistent with what I hear anecdotally from companies. While not rocking and rolling, they say that business is stabilizing and becoming more predictable. Lack of visibility was a key factor in driving layoffs to extremes. Also, we may see a surprising level of profitability in the near future. Downturns are great occasions to clear out some dead wood, and unsurprisingly Donny Baseballhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040288585224426073noreply@blogger.com