tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8462512365707180638..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Auto sales surgeScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-61786449535810480532010-04-04T11:53:43.103-07:002010-04-04T11:53:43.103-07:00Scott - officially, most of the 1970s was a recove...Scott - officially, most of the 1970s was a recovery. The 1974 recession lasted less than a year, and we were on to great things.<br /><br />This is the official record, recognized by both political parties and every economic score keeping entity in the land.<br /><br />But most people remember the 1970s as a disaster economically speaking.<br /><br />Rampant inflation or stagflation -- to tax /Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11953778382074837542010-04-04T10:20:57.111-07:002010-04-04T10:20:57.111-07:00Gary: I've lived through several recoveries, a...Gary: I've lived through several recoveries, and they are all the same: no one believes it is real until way after the fact. This one is no different. I see all the essential ingredients. Monetary policy has a very limited ability to create growth. So does fiscal stimulus of the kind we have done a lot of. Policymakers like to think they can pull and push the economy's levers, but they Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-1406386082422836012010-04-04T03:53:21.978-07:002010-04-04T03:53:21.978-07:00surge, V, impressive, better, improved, recovery, ...surge, V, impressive, better, improved, recovery, rise, not bad, strength, stabilized, attractive.septizoniomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14253705209662419429noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-13045802757722360322010-04-03T16:37:25.327-07:002010-04-03T16:37:25.327-07:00Hi George,
One thing I wonder is if the uptick is...Hi George,<br /><br />One thing I wonder is if the uptick is just a "sugar high" then what about the recoveries abroad? Scott mentioned Brazil in a recent post, for example. <br /><br />Global rebound or irrelevant?Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00842065702455026249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-42950004285328197882010-04-03T14:08:08.547-07:002010-04-03T14:08:08.547-07:00Scott - is this really a "surge" or is t...Scott - is this really a "surge" or is this a reversion toward a long term mean?<br /><br />Eyeballing your chart, the long term mean looks like about 12.5-130 million cars -- and if the economy is going to return to the "boom" times of the late 1990s / early 2000s (as the stock market seems to want to price in) -- then the long term average is more like 16-17 million cars.<brGaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335751305150509057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5799204837354302292010-04-03T08:31:52.286-07:002010-04-03T08:31:52.286-07:00Scott-I was reading the calculated risk blog and h...Scott-I was reading the calculated risk blog and he mentioned a statistic that was used by the Atlanta Fed, I think in referring to structural long trem unemployment. Thta stsistic was that fewer people had moved cities or counties in 2008 than any time in the past 50yrs. He hypothesized this was due to underwater home prices. Wgere does that staistic (ie:mobility or th lack thereof) come from??Steve Fultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06008750322512502848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91424326370338982862010-04-02T14:52:28.598-07:002010-04-02T14:52:28.598-07:00Scott.....
It goes as long as Wall Street and Gov...Scott.....<br /><br />It goes as long as Wall Street and Government can keep borrowing from our retirement accounts and paying generous salaries plus benefits packages to the over 50,000,000 government employees, health care employees funded mostly by government, and Wall Street companies, like public homebuilders borrowing trillions from our retirement accounts that they will never likely be alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.com