tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post825503372677111231..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Purely anecdotal—but impressive nonethelessScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52091745935108636382009-11-03T08:24:35.602-08:002009-11-03T08:24:35.602-08:00:-) regarding the chart.:-) regarding the chart.Gene Prescotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01749854994321888028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-72380980489219087412009-11-02T17:14:06.644-08:002009-11-02T17:14:06.644-08:00FYI - there is no "Columbus," Missouri. ...FYI - there is no "Columbus," Missouri. Maybe he meant "Columbia." LOL, because this adds to my theory that everyone from that town needs help.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17556343586147770724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65340045181103434012009-11-02T09:09:15.665-08:002009-11-02T09:09:15.665-08:00Public: I would never expect all sectors to turn u...Public: I would never expect all sectors to turn up at the same time. Restaurants might the last to turn up, since I would first expect to see net job gains, and that is still many months in the future.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46797336035234517152009-11-02T09:05:21.106-08:002009-11-02T09:05:21.106-08:00Gene: you've got your wish. I changed the char...Gene: you've got your wish. I changed the chart per your suggestion.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-11834163953928149472009-11-02T09:00:24.218-08:002009-11-02T09:00:24.218-08:00A large chunk of GDP came from the cash-for-clunke...A large chunk of GDP came from the cash-for-clunkers and housing tax credit. How you can say this, along with $1T in MBS purchases, are not impacting the market, still befuddles me.<br /><br />The market is not worried about the past, it is worried about the government no longer supporting everything. <br /><br />The S&P broke key support from the March lows...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18002155146566899492009-11-02T08:56:51.522-08:002009-11-02T08:56:51.522-08:00Restaurant Index Shows Contraction, Less Capital S...Restaurant Index Shows Contraction, Less Capital Spending<br /><br />http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/restaurant-index-shows-contraction-less.htmlPublic Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85998248630095566502009-11-02T04:27:48.372-08:002009-11-02T04:27:48.372-08:00Over the last 50 years the economy
has contracted ...Over the last 50 years the economy<br />has contracted 17% of time and expanded 83% of the time...after<br />a deep 18 month recession....I like the odds....broderohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12296214283216386700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-34832276235493269262009-11-02T04:18:18.528-08:002009-11-02T04:18:18.528-08:00Scott, I know the important thing about the chart ...Scott, I know the important thing about the chart is the slight uptick. This would be a good chart, however, to test the conveyance in more correct information at a glance if the left side started at 0% rather than 2%. That would put to housing change in correct visual relationship with the change over time.Gene Prescotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01749854994321888028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40612311183015177212009-11-01T23:12:34.116-08:002009-11-01T23:12:34.116-08:00One more thing: I wouldn't be at all surprised...One more thing: I wouldn't be at all surprised if the upturn in residential construction (where activity has been in a truly unprecedented slump for a very long time) offsets at least part of the weakness in commercial construction.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-77388782165990466172009-11-01T22:57:28.260-08:002009-11-01T22:57:28.260-08:00I don't believe the government stimulus progra...I don't believe the government stimulus programs are big enough to distort the housing market. I think that enough time has passed for the market to address things adequately on its own. Residential construction activity has fallen to an unprecedented degree, as have housing prices. Interest rates are historically very low, and again I don't think the government is the sole cause of low Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39259753253390100952009-11-01T13:00:26.156-08:002009-11-01T13:00:26.156-08:00Well, as far as the housing sector is concerned, I...Well, as far as the housing sector is concerned, I imagine that any turnaround actually may be due in large part to government stimulus efforts. Particularly the tax credit and low interest FHA loans. However, I don't see that as a good thing, with the government simply attempting to re-inflate the bubble rather than let the free market reallocate resources to more productive uses.Colinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03573575140584770666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-66259315693393585782009-11-01T11:14:53.969-08:002009-11-01T11:14:53.969-08:00I guess we'll have to see how these good stori...I guess we'll have to see how these good stories balance out against ones that I've heard, e.g- a large multi-family developer is closing its regional office in February because there are no new projects as is a big commercial contractor. I hope the uptick in residential can offset the upcoming declines in commercial construction.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06910619601367464068noreply@blogger.com