tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post814226726164014399..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Is the commodity selloff significant?Scott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78522958866045433562010-05-19T19:55:21.324-07:002010-05-19T19:55:21.324-07:00Jeff: Re China. I'm not a China expert, but as...Jeff: Re China. I'm not a China expert, but as a contrarian I'm impressed by the number of people out there calling for a collapse in the Chinese housing market. If there is an investor alive in the world who has not heard of the Chinese housing bubble I would be surprised. <br /><br />Whether the bubble pops or not, my sense is that the Chinese economy is dynamic enough (9% average Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-27146710154709877262010-05-19T14:51:58.553-07:002010-05-19T14:51:58.553-07:00John.
Ditto again.
I guess you gotta think in 10-...John.<br />Ditto again. <br />I guess you gotta think in 10- and 20-year chunks. <br />Well, making predictions is hard especially about the future. <br /><br />BTW, BP yielding well more than 7 percent now. You get paid to wait, and they might be getting that blowout fixed.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91761444807077474782010-05-19T13:53:31.331-07:002010-05-19T13:53:31.331-07:00Benj,
I share your fascination with China. They h...Benj,<br /><br />I share your fascination with China. They have come a long long way in a relatively short time (measuring from the days of Mao) and are evolving nicely. I think you are correct in your estimation of their potential. All asians are highly industrious people and given a decent chance will prosper through hard work, determination, and strong family values. Asia as an investment Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79268627308712139182010-05-19T13:18:11.655-07:002010-05-19T13:18:11.655-07:00John-
I am fascinated by China, as you can probab...John-<br /><br />I am fascinated by China, as you can probably tell. I am saddened by their inability to free up their country, in terms of speech and politcal dissent, and that does not bode well. They seem to be freeing up parts of their economy, with much success. I believe that free enterprise and democracy are the best ways to make a good society. <br /><br />China is failing the test so Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-45780511741212788442010-05-19T12:03:19.157-07:002010-05-19T12:03:19.157-07:00Benj,
That's "the pot calling the KETTL...Benj, <br /><br />That's "the pot calling the KETTLE black". Just kidding..<br /><br />You are so correct about our own problems with government spending. However keep in mind that as much as our government spends, it is still dwarfed by private GDP. Also, we have a dynamic consumer economy that China does not have (yet...I hope its coming). It provides a much more balanced economy Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-20778781928446374952010-05-19T11:54:00.344-07:002010-05-19T11:54:00.344-07:00Jeff, John, and Ben,
The Global economy is out of...Jeff, John, and Ben,<br /><br />The Global economy is out of whack so you should expect the pump priming by central banks the world over to spring a leak at some point.<br /><br />China is in a bear market, the US is in zirp mode for eternity (see Japan), and the eurozone is a bundle of laughs.<br /><br />We are still in a solvency crisis no matter how you divvy up the pie. Until someone in a Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70793056516261264022010-05-19T11:05:03.099-07:002010-05-19T11:05:03.099-07:00Jeff-
I ditto everything John said but I can add ...Jeff-<br /><br />I ditto everything John said but I can add that I live in Thailand part-time, and watch Chinese TV (44.8 in Los Angeles) a lot when stateside.<br /><br />I think the short story is that mainland China has so much money nothing matters. <br /><br />As a somewhat centralized economy, they misallocate resources. On the other hand, in the USA we misallocated a couple trillion into Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23516708556295004232010-05-19T10:55:41.958-07:002010-05-19T10:55:41.958-07:00Well said and appreciated. My concern lays in the...Well said and appreciated. My concern lays in the fact that China's growth has been a huge impact in the global growth story in the economy and commodoties as Scott likes to reference, if they collapse, it's going to hurt and I'm concerned about it. I do think the cosumer is becoming a bigger part of their economy (look at the number of cars on the street vs. 10 years ago), but its Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88357937363296256052010-05-19T10:47:56.568-07:002010-05-19T10:47:56.568-07:00Jeff,
Scott will probably weigh in on your quest...Jeff, <br /><br />Scott will probably weigh in on your question when he has time. I share your concern and would appreciate his perspective also. <br /><br />During times of market turbulence such as we are experiencing now there is a marked increase in the number and variety of 'apocolypse' scenarios that are put forth by 'analysts', 'strategists', and other 'expertsJohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-32565763974039270422010-05-19T10:14:53.374-07:002010-05-19T10:14:53.374-07:00Scott:
What is your thoughts to the growing theme...Scott:<br /><br />What is your thoughts to the growing theme that China is on a verge of a major collapse...lead by an enormous property bubble collapse which will certainly due significant damage to the financial system (both within China and globally). Such an event would bring down the entire world economy in a way that could dwarf what we have been through to date. I'm curious as to Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00939788327871137653noreply@blogger.com