tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post8070102854025463486..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Mid-year forecast reviewScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-14049014565330682932009-07-15T09:53:01.293-07:002009-07-15T09:53:01.293-07:00alstry: You're a great bellwether. Always look...alstry: You're a great bellwether. Always looking in the rear-view mirror. Right in the middle of the consensus. Missing all the changes on the margin in the important fundamentals. If you ever turn bullish I'm going to get nervous.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-24999753720193497762009-07-15T09:23:22.531-07:002009-07-15T09:23:22.531-07:00Here is a great piece about how our Fed truly has ...Here is a great piece about how our Fed truly has no clue what it is/was doing, specifically when the yield curve remained inverted for months on end back in 2005/06 and Bernanke telling bold faced lies to Congress.<br /><br />http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/06%252030%252009%2520-%2520More%2520Power%2520to%2520the%2520Systemic%2520Risk%2520Generator.pdf<br /><br /><br />"In March 2006, Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-80300795810956626082009-07-15T08:21:14.497-07:002009-07-15T08:21:14.497-07:00I think what may be more interesting about the hou...I think what may be more interesting about the housing market is the credit quality of the next generation home purchasers. Tt seems we have not learnt a thing.<br /><br />A friend of mine with dubious credit was approved for a $400K FHA loan with only 3% down. He and his wife probably make $150K combined and support a 6 month old child. The payment will be approximately $3,200/mo while they Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48508755859839275742009-07-15T07:32:02.931-07:002009-07-15T07:32:02.931-07:00YUP the recession is over and the DEPRESSION is ju...YUP the recession is over and the DEPRESSION is just beginning...<br /><br /><i>The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.</i><br /><br />The data keeps getting alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-8537876548983316362009-07-15T07:18:53.182-07:002009-07-15T07:18:53.182-07:00Brian,
I guess we can add in REITS to the DEPRESS...Brian,<br /><br />I guess we can add in REITS to the DEPRESSION train....<br /><br /><i>(MarketWatch) -- Although real estate investment trusts have used the recent market recovery to raise capital and reduce financial pressures, the industry still faces significant headwinds, Fitch Ratings warned Wednesday. "Most REITs will need to address tenuous access to financing across the capital alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49412976472295915302009-07-15T06:18:52.224-07:002009-07-15T06:18:52.224-07:00It didn't work, apparently.
I'll just try...It didn't work, apparently.<br /><br />I'll just try to regard alstry as an example of the importance of good parenting.Brian Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14869071526968957308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52040833296081912032009-07-15T05:28:59.070-07:002009-07-15T05:28:59.070-07:00W.W. Grainger
Sales for the Chicago-based supplie...W.W. Grainger<br /><br />Sales for the Chicago-based supplier of facilities maintenance products fell 13% to $1.5 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $1.14a share on revenue of $1.5 billion, according to a survey by FactSet Research. <br /><br />"We have not seen an indication of an economic turnaround at this point but our results indicate that we are gaining market share during this alstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64132831297977661912009-07-15T04:57:54.640-07:002009-07-15T04:57:54.640-07:00Star Tribune
July 14, 2009
In another sign tha...Star Tribune <br /><br />July 14, 2009<br /> <br />In another sign that the housing market has yet to hit bottom, window manufacturer Andersen Corp. said Tuesday it will permanently eliminate 250 management and staff positions, more than half of them at its Bayport, Minn., headquarters.<br /><br />In addition to the job cuts announced Tuesday, Andersen eliminated 287 jobs last week as part of thealstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30074834291736533832009-07-14T23:39:13.392-07:002009-07-14T23:39:13.392-07:00In the areas around San Francisco, the housing pri...In the areas around San Francisco, the housing price have definitely bottomed. In fact, the price have bounced up a bit from the bottom. I know because I have been house hunting for the last few months.<br /><br />I suspect other local real estate markets that led the nation are in similar situation.<br /><br />Also, for some time I was very unsure on the debate of deflation vs. inflation. Now狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63007867602759427122009-07-14T21:09:35.182-07:002009-07-14T21:09:35.182-07:00alstry -
Please get a girlfriend, or a puppy, or ...alstry -<br /><br />Please get a girlfriend, or a puppy, or something. Maybe start your own blog so someone can have a shot at naysaying everything you post... <br /><br />Oh, wait. You did! Two of them! "Alstrynomics" and "Zombulator". <br /><br />They list you as the inventor of "Alstrynomics". <br /><br />Why do I get this feeling that you're a retired collegeBrian Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14869071526968957308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31331932903068039542009-07-14T19:35:35.193-07:002009-07-14T19:35:35.193-07:00The fact that foreclosures are up in California do...The fact that foreclosures are up in California does not mean the market has not bottomed. Sales volume is up and foreclosures are up, but prices are no longer falling, and have even risen in some markets in recent months. Housing affordability is near a record high, given the significant decline in prices and very low interest rates. Housing starts have been flat this year after falling to Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78906724967201813812009-07-14T19:20:49.507-07:002009-07-14T19:20:49.507-07:00Did anyone else check that Calculated Risk piece a...Did anyone else check that Calculated Risk piece alstry referenced and notice the percentages are for California? You all remember California...one of the five epicenters (along with Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Michigan) of the housing bubble?<br /><br />Nothing like cherry-picking to make a point. So how about we take a look at foreclosures in, say, North Dakota? <br /><br />According to Chadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14267717686164259220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54650768569391239722009-07-14T17:38:01.752-07:002009-07-14T17:38:01.752-07:00Scott,
I agree with Alstry (probably for vastly di...Scott,<br />I agree with Alstry (probably for vastly different reasons). I see no sign of stabilizing housing prices yet. In fact I suspect the real avalanche of collapsing housing prices in the Northeast (the most important part of the country economically) has only just started to gain momentum. To paraphrase, "this is not the end, nor is it the beginning of the end, but it is the end of Mark A. Sadowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13147923641894915172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-53943446426510417532009-07-14T13:17:22.782-07:002009-07-14T13:17:22.782-07:00You keep saying housing is stabilizing....the data...You keep saying housing is stabilizing....the data simply fails to support your assertion:<br /><br /><i>For the third consecutive month, foreclosure sales jumped significantly as lenders come off the moratorium. Foreclosure sales increased by 24.7 percent following a 31.9 percent increase in May, and a 35 percent April increase. Notices of Trustee Sale dropped by an unexpected 28.7 percent, withalstryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16025398896639165994noreply@blogger.com