tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7955560583595074195..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: What record-low Treasury yields tell usScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-79221089551432180012012-06-02T20:49:38.651-07:002012-06-02T20:49:38.651-07:00Puffer, we were thinking the same thing..We took a...Puffer, we were thinking the same thing..We took a position at 19.14 and closed out at 18.40...<br /><br />If we get a 1% yield on the 10 year, TBT will be trading at 10...Hanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05183141792723754273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-15667766933662849852012-05-31T11:12:16.748-07:002012-05-31T11:12:16.748-07:00Unknown,
When the music stops, the banks will sel...Unknown,<br /><br />When the music stops, the banks will sell the cr*p out of treasuries. The Fed is helpless which is why it will keep buying bonds until the game is officially over.<br /><br />They are pulling on levers disconnected from the engine...Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-40135521862345560022012-05-31T07:46:10.122-07:002012-05-31T07:46:10.122-07:00Re gold: Gold hit a peak of $850 in mid-January 19...Re gold: Gold hit a peak of $850 in mid-January 1980, but it was very short-lived. The average for the month was $675, and it closed the month at $653. If you throw out the very brief peak and use the month-end value, then in today's dollars, gold today is down only 19%. That's almost a rounding error in my book.Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6661835587085861122012-05-31T05:20:52.254-07:002012-05-31T05:20:52.254-07:00PS: All eyes should remain on California -- either...PS: All eyes should remain on California -- either California will dramatically raise taxes early next year, or California will dramatically cut spending -- other states in the US will follow California's lead...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-48993008036230415662012-05-31T05:17:25.104-07:002012-05-31T05:17:25.104-07:00At the peak of the Great Depressioon in 1933, 75% ...At the peak of the Great Depressioon in 1933, 75% of Americans had a job -- the parellels to today are eerie -- the key to making in today's Main Street depression is to keep a job and stay in the 75% crowd of Americans who are still working -- jobs are scarce these days, and scarcity adds value -- keeping a job is the first priority of working Americans in order to navigate today's McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-68174840047085006852012-05-31T05:10:20.475-07:002012-05-31T05:10:20.475-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17813387437902890692012-05-31T04:38:31.846-07:002012-05-31T04:38:31.846-07:00Scott, it's early in the day for me after a 60...Scott, it's early in the day for me after a 600 miles drive, but the following portion of your post is confusing to me, so can you please explain: <br /><br /> "In real terms, gold today is worth about one-third less that it was at its very brief peak in mid-January 1980, which marked the worst of double-digit inflation fears and a collapsing dollar. But compared to its value at the endmmanagedaccountshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08188469703346980431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75159148930267780882012-05-31T00:40:17.678-07:002012-05-31T00:40:17.678-07:00Last year I mostly jokingly stated "buy TBT a...Last year I mostly jokingly stated "buy TBT at $15?" Now that we are actually at that level I am thinking that if any kind of Euro panic ensues, we could be in the $12 range rather quickly. <br />Amazing....pufferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02594945926620839004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31162076114585362152012-05-30T22:56:53.346-07:002012-05-30T22:56:53.346-07:00"Why take additional risk when you can borrow...<b>"Why take additional risk when you can borrow from the Fed on the cheap, buy treasuries and sell them back to the Fed at a profit."</b><br /><br />What happens when the Fed is no longer buying many treasuries?<br /><br />That's what will happen when OT ends next month.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62774730220640136622012-05-30T22:02:27.246-07:002012-05-30T22:02:27.246-07:00Have you contemplated Wall St. realizes bonds are ...Have you contemplated Wall St. realizes bonds are the only game in town right now? <br /><br />Why take additional risk when you can borrow from the Fed on the cheap, buy treasuries and sell them back to the Fed at a profit.<br /><br />This was predicted by some (Antal Fekete comes to mind). What we are seeing is not an irrational expectation of the future, but rather a rational exploitation of Public Libraryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00017383928897945054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88771837975454232082012-05-30T21:40:25.501-07:002012-05-30T21:40:25.501-07:00@William,
He is neither a bear nor a bull, is not...@William,<br /><br />He is neither a bear nor a bull, is not afraid to change his mind on a dime if that's what the markets do, and he's said so. I believe he even repeated that in his article today. I've often thought he's a bit quick to call a new trend, which has made him early in some of his calls, and he probably writes a bit too often, making comments which sound like he&#Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-18818242296982668362012-05-30T21:22:56.224-07:002012-05-30T21:22:56.224-07:00Unknown said...My favorite stock market analyst - ...<a rel="nofollow">Unknown</a> said...My favorite stock market analyst - Micheal Gayed..."<br /><br />Good luck following his "advice". He is all-over-the-place - but mostly carefully covering his behind.<br /><br />Besides, he is way too young to know what is truly going to happen in this most difficult market.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-84378969784045795102012-05-30T21:02:14.543-07:002012-05-30T21:02:14.543-07:00My favorite stock market analyst - Micheal Gayed -...My favorite stock market analyst - Micheal Gayed - really stuck out his neck today to continue a call he made earlier in the year for a major "reflationary" period in the markets the rest of this year. He's called both the major market movements the past year - the crash last summer (which he began predicting in the spring) and the fall melt-up, which he predicted just before it Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86649592357101193832012-05-30T20:18:27.518-07:002012-05-30T20:18:27.518-07:00Big cities in general are doing well as that is wh...Big cities in general are doing well as that is where the jobs are. But these city folk are not necessarily buying risk assets either. Californians pretty much ignore state problems thinking adjustments to taxes and budgets will take care of everything. We will see.<br /> <br />Scott so often has a good angle on things. Very helpful. I agree that stocks will rally with simply a recognition Squirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91071627362131691422012-05-30T19:29:05.343-07:002012-05-30T19:29:05.343-07:00Thanks, William. Here is So. California there are ...Thanks, William. Here is So. California there are surprisingly few homes for sale, and I'm hearing from a variety of sources that prices are no longer falling and even firming in some areas. Life goes on almost as before, with plenty of traffic at rush hour. The most popular restaurants in San Clemente (Nick's and South of Nick's) are almost impossible to get into any night of the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17399283151839155572012-05-30T19:08:22.417-07:002012-05-30T19:08:22.417-07:00Thank you Scott for a well reasoned analysis. Here...Thank you <a rel="nofollow">Scott</a> for a well reasoned analysis. Here in Richmond, VA, things aren't looking so bad. Unemployment is 6.5%, housing has stabilized and in the elegant 1910 - 1920s Fan District of Richmond City very few homes are for sale now - the peak number appears to have been in 2009.<br /><br />In Richmond, I don't sense all the anxiety which is present elsewhere. Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04418491109912775561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-17692926990106468732012-05-30T17:31:18.017-07:002012-05-30T17:31:18.017-07:00Look around -- this is what depression looks like,...Look around -- this is what depression looks like, albeit along Main Street USA -- the devastation of lives has only just begun -- my prayers go out to those who are economic suffering...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.com