tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7906983755275362108..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: fear subsides, prices riseScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-75580324507798825552010-08-03T07:46:57.520-07:002010-08-03T07:46:57.520-07:00Benj,
Thank you.
A global business outlook surv...Benj,<br /><br />Thank you. <br /><br />A global business outlook survey is periodicly conducted by KPMG. The results for the July survey show business confidence continuing to increase (despite the consumer going in the opposite direction). Manufacturing executives are steadily increasing hiring (mfg. is ~12% of GDP) while services are holding steady. The only country that registered higher Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6676442929839379092010-08-02T14:51:23.700-07:002010-08-02T14:51:23.700-07:00Unit labor costs are going down, not up. The CPI i...Unit labor costs are going down, not up. The CPI is down three months straight. Gold going down now. Steel very soft. <br />Real estate--I won't even talk about it, but further liquidations could be in store, in commercial, retail, industrial. I hope not. <br /><br />Well, time will tell. But when a Bullard and a Gross talk deflation, I would put a fresh and wet finger in the wind.<br /><br /Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-37540231129483940132010-08-02T14:23:55.912-07:002010-08-02T14:23:55.912-07:00Deflation is properly defined as a decline in the ...Deflation is properly defined as a decline in the general price level: a decline in all prices. That is most certainly NOT happening today. Gold is way up, commodities are way up, many currencies are way up against the dollar, wages are rising, the CPI is rising, the GDP deflator is rising, and the PCE deflator is rising. Plus, all measures of money are rising, and the Fed is trying harder than Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-35657835098761249342010-08-02T14:23:52.104-07:002010-08-02T14:23:52.104-07:00Deflation is properly defined as a decline in the ...Deflation is properly defined as a decline in the general price level: a decline in all prices. That is most certainly NOT happening today. Gold is way up, commodities are way up, many currencies are way up against the dollar, wages are rising, the CPI is rising, the GDP deflator is rising, and the PCE deflator is rising. Plus, all measures of money are rising, and the Fed is trying harder than Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-43810647460099983672010-08-02T14:11:44.521-07:002010-08-02T14:11:44.521-07:00Benj,
I am sure Mr. Gross is every bit what you s...Benj,<br /><br />I am sure Mr. Gross is every bit what you say. I did not mean to imply otherwise. Everyone is influenced by their interests. Mr. Gross is no exception (nor am I). <br /><br />I believe you when you say there is currently no upward price pressure on rents, wages, etc. However if we can be certain of anything in this world it is that things change. Perhaps too slowly to suit many Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81133722329515211852010-08-02T13:37:47.947-07:002010-08-02T13:37:47.947-07:00John-
Years ago I interviewed Gross, and he struck...John-<br />Years ago I interviewed Gross, and he struck me as a thoughtful and principled individual. Maybe I was fooled, who knows. Jeez, the guy has made enough money he does not have to turn tricks anymore, he can say what he thinks.<br /><br />There seems to be a growing consensus among some faily "conservative" (small c) investors/policymaker that deflation is real, such as BullardBenjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-73718113664216352622010-08-02T12:35:50.302-07:002010-08-02T12:35:50.302-07:00Of course Benji fell for Gross's agitprop hook...Of course Benji fell for Gross's agitprop hook, line and sinker despite all of the evidence that inflation, not deflation, is the current and future status for the US economy. The temporary deflation we have suffered in the past 2 years in some sectors of the economy was a result of a market correction which has now ended and inflation has resumed its 10 year march.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05145490918994594519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-49841563164533157412010-08-02T12:26:23.959-07:002010-08-02T12:26:23.959-07:00Benj,
It is always a good thing to know what Mr. ...Benj,<br /><br />It is always a good thing to know what Mr. Gross is thinking. However one should keep in mind he runs a HUGE bond house. Constantly warning of the deflation booger keeps his investors frightened and close to (his) home. I'm not saying what he says is wrong, just that what he says is strongly influenced by his interests and should be taken into account when reading his Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11652253509768573561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-60985844729608467842010-08-02T12:07:27.706-07:002010-08-02T12:07:27.706-07:00See page c1, today's WSJ. Pimco's Bill Gro...See page c1, today's WSJ. Pimco's Bill Gross, who hails from Grannis' OC, says we are in feflation now, and he is investing accordingly.Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.com