tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7881332385204404570..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: TIPS update--not very attractiveScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-76078553803700855382012-04-09T03:32:10.482-07:002012-04-09T03:32:10.482-07:00As a Costa Rica Real EstateExpert I really like yo...As a <a href="http://www.costa-rican-real-estate.com/" rel="nofollow">Costa Rica Real Estate</a>Expert I really like your post and I appreciate the post and content...ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15326006692428314744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-69791893551616650072012-03-16T14:24:56.010-07:002012-03-16T14:24:56.010-07:00Investors learned that TIPS could protect them fro...Investors learned that TIPS could protect them from inflation and have bid up the price. Currently, with no real yield, it only leaves real estate and equity assets for inflation protection. Isn't that what the Federal Reserve wanted us to do? (No good options!)Ken Faulkenberry, ArborInvestmentPlanner.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10677067225069611562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33615218306967054952012-03-16T07:43:13.399-07:002012-03-16T07:43:13.399-07:00Robert: re why TIPS were so cheap in the early yea...Robert: re why TIPS were so cheap in the early years. I think there are two reasons: 1) as you say, not many people were focused on TIPS at the beginning, so the market didn't really appreciate how cheap they were, and 2) real yields on all Treasuries were very high because monetary policy was very tight. The economy tolerated high real yields for several years because growth was very strong Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28031607796625753782012-03-16T07:17:11.150-07:002012-03-16T07:17:11.150-07:00Is it correct to say that the early period of &quo...Is it correct to say that the early period of "extreme cheapness" was really due to TIPS being new and most institutional investors weren't buying them. Only as the institutions started getting on board did the real rate start to fall?<br /><br />Great post and blog BTW.Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16883355600904464858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57460206647093417422012-03-16T07:11:47.216-07:002012-03-16T07:11:47.216-07:00In the event of any inflation in the future, bondh...In the event of any inflation in the future, bondholders stand to be wiped out -- as inflation (and rates) go up, existing bond yields collapse...McKibbinUSAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10545798495680527622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-74818623723840558272012-03-16T05:57:22.319-07:002012-03-16T05:57:22.319-07:00Dear Scott,
I have been running a small position ...Dear Scott,<br /><br />I have been running a small position on TBT, ie betting that US government bonds will get cheaper ... it didn't seem to be doing anything, staying range-bound, but then two days ago it jumped 100 points in a day, having run up the day before. This one-day move was bigger than anything seen (upwards) for many months. My question is: what the heck caused that sudden move Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062180895899998738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-36254768867094961262012-03-16T02:38:38.999-07:002012-03-16T02:38:38.999-07:00Thanks for this post. I have been trying to wrap m...Thanks for this post. I have been trying to wrap my head around TIPS valuation for a while now. Almost had a epiphany after reading this!<br /><br />Buddy - I agree, a not too high inflation stagflation scenario probably is the best one for TIPS. But the nominal yields are going to move based on rate hike expectations. So a more hawkish Fed (obviously not Bernanke) will be bad for TIPS regardlessSmrutihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06560763405392549582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21587812846414352342012-03-15T18:25:39.095-07:002012-03-15T18:25:39.095-07:00It looks like TIPs are attractive during a period ...It looks like TIPs are attractive during a period of stagfaltion. If the next five to ten years are slow growth and inflation >3.5% then TIPs might be will be attractive.Buddy R Pacificohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12737107556268024013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-64158969081697566382012-03-15T10:18:31.951-07:002012-03-15T10:18:31.951-07:00Scott,
Thanks for your in-depth commentary. It i...Scott,<br /><br />Thanks for your in-depth commentary. It is much appreciated.DownSouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01060412190845404089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52040327737329316822012-03-15T10:12:26.898-07:002012-03-15T10:12:26.898-07:00I have read a hundred times that when bonds and st...I have read a hundred times that when bonds and stocks diverge, the bond market is always correct. This time I think not and bond yields are going to converge on the stock market. If not, those economists calling for a contraction later this year will be heroes. But how bad will a contraction be? One thing is that it would ensure Obama’s loss in November. This would be good for the economySquirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14088030568579672500noreply@blogger.com