tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post7809698528753818243..comments2024-03-28T00:18:25.641-07:00Comments on Calafia Beach Pundit: Omicron strikes weaklyScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-55242239334403406932022-01-10T13:32:55.455-08:002022-01-10T13:32:55.455-08:00Jeff F: Thanks for your comments, nice to know the...Jeff F: Thanks for your comments, nice to know the charts are appreciated, as I do take pains in that regard. As for the Fed distorting the TIPS market through its purchases, I've addressed this issue in prior posts over the years, and I have addressed the subject professionally with clients for decades. The short answer is that the evidence to support the thesis that QE has distorted the Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65395683064419232752022-01-10T04:50:33.057-08:002022-01-10T04:50:33.057-08:00I just read Mish Talk's comments on bonds. Th...I just read Mish Talk's comments on bonds. The govt has 25% of the TIPS market, not sure of average maturity. <br /><br />"TIPS are no longer a market signal about inflation expectations, the Fed ruined this with its big footprint. TIPS are flow driven and flows are dominated by expectations of the speed of the Fed printer."<br /><br />The FED really ramped the purchases since theJeff Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11729637369560216461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-47530195924551528472022-01-09T06:15:05.526-08:002022-01-09T06:15:05.526-08:00The below is from your blog:
Inflation: headline ...The below is from your blog:<br /><br />Inflation: headline inflation has gone down, but core inflation hasn't; once oil prices bottom (which I think is happening), all measures of inflation will head higher; I don't see a hyperinflation yet, but I do see inflation that is significantly higher than what is priced into the bond market. The main driver of higher inflation will be the Fed&#EHRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07574913749054167481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5118163549278241922022-01-06T11:43:48.427-08:002022-01-06T11:43:48.427-08:0010 yr still trying to make something stick.10 yr still trying to make something stick.Ataraxiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06890889962572151036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-4085872616021100292022-01-05T14:21:58.630-08:002022-01-05T14:21:58.630-08:00Scott, I just learned you have been sick. I hope ...Scott, I just learned you have been sick. I hope you fully recover very soon. You are terrific in my book.Kennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01366772652626173281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-58470481101393262092022-01-05T09:11:19.133-08:002022-01-05T09:11:19.133-08:00Sorry to hear you got sick, Scott. Glad to hear yo...Sorry to hear you got sick, Scott. Glad to hear you're getting better.K T Cathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10259428595745509790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-33311985279021830982022-01-05T04:57:27.216-08:002022-01-05T04:57:27.216-08:00There are already 2 readers who essentially poste...There are already 2 readers who essentially posted what I would regarding the vaccines. I’m a financial advisor, so I have no official qualifications, but I happen to have a Dr. as a client who has over thirty years of epidemiological experience on two continents. <br />He hasn’t entered the inflation debate, due to his humility. <br /><br />The bubonic plague traveled on the Silk Road from The Gunnyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13437749684599496730noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30599995574473281712022-01-04T21:36:25.190-08:002022-01-04T21:36:25.190-08:00Scott tends to read the book upside down...vaccine...Scott tends to read the book upside down...vaccines are not meant to prevent you from catching the virus, for crying out loud, some vaccines even inject a tame form of the virus into a person so the body trains to fight it. Vaccines help you survived the virus, so that you kick back at home watching tv while your body fights the disease, instead of being in the ICU, breathing thru a tube. Hark is100https://www.blogger.com/profile/15771267634803859096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5708457444024750612022-01-04T20:27:01.775-08:002022-01-04T20:27:01.775-08:00Welcome to club Scott!
All the best for a great ye...Welcome to club Scott!<br />All the best for a great year ahead.<br />Appreciate your work -- thank you.Needelmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10232156942543409211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46582318391748200462022-01-04T14:59:11.464-08:002022-01-04T14:59:11.464-08:00Scott Grannis" "22 fully vaxxed individu...<br />Scott Grannis" "22 fully vaxxed individuals got Omicron...No one has even considered going to the hospital."<br /><br />Also Scott Grannis: "My takeaway: the MRNA vaccines don't protect you at all against Omicron"<br /><br />:Facepalm:<br /><br /><br />You might want to figure out how these vaccines are meant to work.<br /><br />Your unvaxxed friends/family Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12616454339935658018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-85178010760791867472022-01-04T14:04:22.850-08:002022-01-04T14:04:22.850-08:00Scott, glad you're recovering rapidly....been...Scott, glad you're recovering rapidly....been missing your commentary. ten year yields reached a critical area today, if you're a technical guy [i am]. a break above this level gives me a target of 2.15%, which is not enough to derail the equity train. <br /><br />keep posting your thoughts, and again, get well quickly.JDonleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00556948063590125297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-41678629864564057332022-01-04T09:09:29.313-08:002022-01-04T09:09:29.313-08:00-On the coronavirus
Catching covid a few days ago...-On the coronavirus<br /><br />Catching covid a few days ago is different from carching covid a while back, for somebody who is 72. Covid (omicron) is now a less virulent form and vaccines still do an amazing job at decreasing covid risk of severe disease, hospitalization and mortality. That’s what ‘they’ meant (at least in a way) when the concept of curve flattening was described.<br /><br />TheCarlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01792779708580094262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-81185418322843803792022-01-04T08:39:10.379-08:002022-01-04T08:39:10.379-08:00Thanks Benjamin-
I've watched a few great re...Thanks Benjamin- <br /><br />I've watched a few great recent interviews of old timer FED Reserve insiders, Plosser, Hunt. The FED culture was historically staunchly independent and pretty much laser focus on inflation/price stability. The unemployment mandate which is well known to be usually in tradeoff to inflation/price stability was added even though not everyone agreed that should be Ataraxiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06890889962572151036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57182227665136315472022-01-04T08:37:27.787-08:002022-01-04T08:37:27.787-08:00Happy new year Scott!
Been reading you for many y...Happy new year Scott!<br /><br />Been reading you for many years (2007 or 2008 I believe), your knowledge and judgement are unmatched as far as I'm concerned, thank you!<br /><br />Jean-PierreJean-Pierre Deslandeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02089882925568071398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29953221395125307472022-01-04T04:54:11.629-08:002022-01-04T04:54:11.629-08:00Ataraxia--
I think you ask interesting questions....Ataraxia--<br /><br />I think you ask interesting questions. <br /><br />With the advent of sustained QE (Bank of Japan, the Fed) we are seeing, some say, modern monetary theory (MMT) in action. <br /><br />The US government spends money, the Fed prints money and buys US Treasuries...it really is a money-financed fiscal program. <br /><br />If the Fed is regarded as part of the US government (I Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-59250151360168169572022-01-03T21:44:58.371-08:002022-01-03T21:44:58.371-08:00Glad to hear you're well and thanks for the st...Glad to hear you're well and thanks for the story. I like to hear personal and non biased experiences with that virus/s. I'm looking forward to your inflation thesis. <br /><br />Generally the money supply has been controlled via Open Market Operations, fractional reserve system, FFR, Discount Rate, more recently IOR. Now SOFR too? <br /><br />FED/Treasury seemed to have bypassed this Ataraxiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06890889962572151036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-82301384778802321002022-01-03T20:16:14.745-08:002022-01-03T20:16:14.745-08:00Full and quick recovery to you. Best wishes in 202...Full and quick recovery to you. Best wishes in 2022. ebg investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14513889673146997967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46873933419450787462022-01-03T19:59:47.790-08:002022-01-03T19:59:47.790-08:00Good luck to Scott Grannis, and of course everybod...Good luck to Scott Grannis, and of course everybody, with Omicron. IMHO, we will all get it, wherever you are on the planet and whatever precautions you take. <br /><br />Fighting C19 is like fighting the tide with bucket and sand. <br /><br />Well, from Reuters---<br /><br />"S&P 500, Dow hit record highs on 1st trading day of 2022"<br /><br />---30---<br /><br />They say Wall Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-86747937262873782962022-01-03T19:36:57.532-08:002022-01-03T19:36:57.532-08:00Pretty sure I was exposed on the 24th, but it coul...Pretty sure I was exposed on the 24th, but it could possibly have been on the evening of the 23rd. I now think my first symptoms appeared on the 28th. I felt pretty lousy the 29th, 30th, and 31st, but since then I have been gradually improving. Today I have only a moderately sore throat. My wife has fared better than I have all along. All in all, not so bad considering we are both 72. Though I&#Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-52524679136090444022022-01-03T19:18:42.423-08:002022-01-03T19:18:42.423-08:00Very sorry to hear of your illness and am glad you...Very sorry to hear of your illness and am glad you feel that it is going so well.<br /><br />I am trying to backtrack the date of infection to the date of posting. Am I correct that you were exposed to the index case on the 24th, and first developed symptoms about five days after exposure on Wednesday December 29th please?<br /><br />Best wishes to you and yours for a Happy and Healthy New Year.EHRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07574913749054167481noreply@blogger.com